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24 June 2001
20010623 Week Rotation Today Rotation Week 20010625

Welcome to the Flare Prediction System. This page lists the active regions present on the Sun today, together with their probability of producing C-, M-, or X-class events. Flare probabilities are calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data combined over 1969-1976 and 1988-1996 (details of which can be found in Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41, along with full forecast verification testing). The percentage probabilities are based on the number of flares produced by regions classified using the McIntosh classification scheme (McIntosh, P., 1990, Solar Physics, 125, 251) during cycles 21 and 22. For example, over both time periods there were 377 regions classified Eai. As this class produced 131 M-class events, the mean M-class flare rate is ~131/377 or ~0.347 flares per day. Assuming the number of flares per unit time is governed by Poisson statistics, we can estimate a flaring probability for the following 24-hours using P( one or more flares ) = 1 - exp( -mean ), i.e., P = 1 - exp( -0.347 ) ~ 0.29, or 29% for an Eai class region to produce one or more M-class flares in the next 24-hours.

See Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002),
Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87 and Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951 for further details.

Click here for a description of the various active region classifications from the Royal Observatory of Belgium.

Region Flare Probabilities (%)
Number McIntosh C-class M-class X-class
No Prediction Found

NOTE: Occurrence of '...' indicates that McIntosh class was not observed in the period over which the Poisson flare rate statistics were determined. Values in parantheses/brackets give the NOAA/SWPC forecast probabilities for the occurrence of one or more C-, M-, or X-class flares. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.

Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research.

Today's/Yesterday's NOAA Active Regions
NOAA Number
McIntosh Class
Sunspot Area
Number of Spots
09501 S13W91
α/αγδ Hax/Hsx 0030/0050 01/02 -
09503 N16W75
βγ/βγδ Fao/Fai 0310/0380 20/29 -
09504 N08W70
βγ/βγδ Cko/Dko 0260/0260 05/04 -
09506 N18W48
βγ/βγδ Fao/Fsi 0270/0280 13/15 -
09509 S09W74
βγ/βγδ Cso/Dso 0060/0070 05/12 -
09510 S07W91
βγ/βγδ Cro/Dso 0060/0040 03/04 -
09511 N10W01
βγδ/βγδ Dao/Dso 0110/0040 22/08 -
09512 S22W09
βγδ/βγδ Eao/Dao 0130/0110 17/13 -
09513 N23E42
βγδ/βγδ Fao/Dao 0160/0120 13/04 -
09514 N17E40
αγδ/αγδ Hsx/Hsx 0040/0040 03/01 -
09515 S06E32
βγδ/βγδ Cao/Cao 0070/0070 05/05 -
09516 N12E56
αγδ/αγδ Hax/Hax 0090/0090 01/01 -

Class (HH:MM) -Today
Class (HH:MM) -Yesterday

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: None

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 24-Jun-2001 00:30 . The greyed out and light-blue entries are values from the previous day. Slashed cells indicate that the active region has no spots. The latest positions of the active regions are given in both heliographic and heliocentric co-ordinates. The region positions are valid on 24-Jun-2001 23:30 .