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23 June 2001
20010622 Week Rotation Today Rotation Week 20010624

Welcome to the Flare Prediction System. This page lists the active regions present on the Sun today, together with their probability of producing C-, M-, or X-class events. Flare probabilities are calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data combined over 1969-1976 and 1988-1996 (details of which can be found in Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41, along with full forecast verification testing). The percentage probabilities are based on the number of flares produced by regions classified using the McIntosh classification scheme (McIntosh, P., 1990, Solar Physics, 125, 251) during cycles 21 and 22. For example, over both time periods there were 377 regions classified Eai. As this class produced 131 M-class events, the mean M-class flare rate is ~131/377 or ~0.347 flares per day. Assuming the number of flares per unit time is governed by Poisson statistics, we can estimate a flaring probability for the following 24-hours using P( one or more flares ) = 1 - exp( -mean ), i.e., P = 1 - exp( -0.347 ) ~ 0.29, or 29% for an Eai class region to produce one or more M-class flares in the next 24-hours.

See Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002),
Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87 and Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951 for further details.

Click here for a description of the various active region classifications from the Royal Observatory of Belgium.

Region Flare Probabilities (%)
Number McIntosh C-class M-class X-class
No Prediction Found

NOTE: Occurrence of '...' indicates that McIntosh class was not observed in the period over which the Poisson flare rate statistics were determined. Values in parantheses/brackets give the NOAA/SWPC forecast probabilities for the occurrence of one or more C-, M-, or X-class flares. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.

Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research.

Today's/Yesterday's NOAA Active Regions
NOAA Number
McIntosh Class
Sunspot Area
Number of Spots
09501 S13W91
αγδ/βγ Hsx/Cao 0050/0060 02/08 -
09503 N17W60
βγδ/βγδ Fai/Fki 0380/0460 29/40 -
09504 N09W56
βγδ/βγδ Dko/Cko 0260/0330 04/10 -
09505 N21W48
αγδ/αγδ Axx/Hsx 0000/0010 01/01 -
09506 N19W32
βγδ/βγδ Fsi/Fso 0280/0240 15/27 -
09509 S10W59
βγδ/βγδ Dso/Dao 0070/0060 12/15 -
09510 S07W78
βγδ/βγδ Dso/Dso 0040/0030 04/03 -
09511 N10E11
βγδ/αγδ Dso/Axx 0040/0000 08/01 -
09512 S22E03
βγδ/βγδ Dao/Dao 0110/0030 13/06 -
09513 N22E52
βγδ/αγδ Dao/Hsx 0120/0040 04/01 -
09514 N17E51
αγδ/αγδ Hsx/Hsx 0040/0040 01/01 -
09515 S06E32
βγδ/- Cao/--- 0070/---- 05/-- -
09516 N12E56
αγδ/- Hax/--- 0090/---- 01/-- -

Class (HH:MM) -Today
Class (HH:MM) -Yesterday

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: None

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 23-Jun-2001 00:30 . The greyed out and light-blue entries are values from the previous day. Slashed cells indicate that the active region has no spots. The latest positions of the active regions are given in both heliographic and heliocentric co-ordinates. The region positions are valid on 23-Jun-2001 23:30 .