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13 July 2022
20220712 Week Rotation Today Rotation Week 20220714

NOAA Number McIntosh Class C-class M-class X-class

13053
13055
13056
13057

Axx/Hrx
Eki/Eki
Eki/Ekc
Cao/Cao
Dho/Dso
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
75 81 50
65 81 60
17 22 20
15 43 35
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
23 42 10
31 42 15
2 3 1
15 13 10
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
3 7 1
0 7 5
0 0 1
0 1 1

Solar Monitor's flare prediction system's probabilities are calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data. There are two main methods, MCSTAT and MCEVOL, that use sunspot-group McIntosh classifications and Poisson statistics to calculate flaring probabilities valid for a 24-hr period*. The flaring probabilities are calculated using historical data from the periods 1969-1976 & 1988-1996 (MCSTAT) and 1988-2008 (MCEVOL).

MCSTAT – Uses point-in-time McIntosh classifications to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method [1] and forecast verification testing [2] can be found in the following papers:

[1] Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002)
[2] Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41

MCEVOL – Uses the evolution of McIntosh classifications over a 24-hr period to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method and flaring rate statistics can be found in the following:

[1] McCloskey, A.E., Gallagher, P.T. & Bloomfield, D.S., Solar Physics, 291, 1711, (2016)

Further Reading:
Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87
Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951


Notes:

'...' = McIntosh class or evolution was not observed in the period over which the Poisson flare rate statistics were determined.
* When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.


Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any queries regarding this research.



Today's/Yesterday's NOAA Active Regions
NOAA Number
Latest
Position
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot Area
[millionths]
Number of Spots
Recent
Flares
13052 N15W57
(766",207")
α/α Axx/Hrx 0010/0010 01/01 -
13053 N15W33
(498",188")
β/β Eki/Eki 0250/0410 23/24 -
13055 S16W23
(355",-321")
β/β Eki/Ekc 0800/0960 24/25 -
13056 S16E23
(-355",-321")
β/β Cao/Cao 0140/0200 09/09 -
13057 N16E43
(-620",211")
β/β Dho/Dso 0380/0220 10/02 -
13046 N16W91
(906",260")
/α /Hrx /0010 /01 -
13049 S12W91
(922",-194")
/ / / / -
13050 N18W91
(897",291")
/ / / / -
13051 N28W88
(832",439")
/α /Axx /0010 /02 -

Class (HH:MM) -Today
Class (HH:MM) -Yesterday

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: C1.7(01:36) C2.6(01:50) C1.4(04:30) C1.6(05:55) C2.0(07:17) C2.3(07:27) C1.4(09:53) C1.5(11:13) C1.3(12:28) C1.7(15:25) C2.3(16:12) C2.1(17:09) C2.2(17:24) C3.3(17:53) C3.2(19:20) C2.7(19:43) C3.0(20:44) C1.8(18:50) C1.6(22:34) C2.3(23:24)

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 13-Jul-2022 00:30 UT . The greyed out and light-blue entries are values from the previous day. Slashed cells indicate that the active region has no spots. The latest positions of the active regions are given in both heliographic and heliocentric co-ordinates. The region positions are valid on 13-Jul-2022 23:30 UT .