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29 April 2024
20240428 Week Rotation Today Rotation Week 20240430

NOAA Number McIntosh Class C-class M-class X-class

13644
13652
13654
13655
13658
13660

Bxo/Bxo
Axx/Cao
Hsx/Hsx
Ekc/Esi
Hsx/Hax
Axx/Bxo
Cao/Cro
Bxo/Hsx
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
8 6 0
3 5 10
0 93 75
7 5 10
27 22 0
4 6 10
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
1 1 0
0 3 1
0 82 35
1 3 1
4 3 0
0 1 1
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
0 0 0
0 0 1
0 20 5
0 0 1
0 0 0
0 0 1

Solar Monitor's flare prediction system's probabilities are calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data. There are two main methods, MCSTAT and MCEVOL, that use sunspot-group McIntosh classifications and Poisson statistics to calculate flaring probabilities valid for a 24-hr period*. The flaring probabilities are calculated using historical data from the periods 1969-1976 & 1988-1996 (MCSTAT) and 1988-2008 (MCEVOL).

MCSTAT – Uses point-in-time McIntosh classifications to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method [1] and forecast verification testing [2] can be found in the following papers:

[1] Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002)
[2] Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41

MCEVOL – Uses the evolution of McIntosh classifications over a 24-hr period to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method and flaring rate statistics can be found in the following:

[1] McCloskey, A.E., Gallagher, P.T. & Bloomfield, D.S., Solar Physics, 291, 1711, (2016)

Further Reading:
Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87
Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951


Notes:

'...' = McIntosh class or evolution was not observed in the period over which the Poisson flare rate statistics were determined.
* When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.


Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any queries regarding this research.



Today's/Yesterday's NOAA Active Regions
NOAA Number
Latest
Position
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot Area
[millionths]
Number of Spots
Recent
Flares
13644 N13W91
(927",212")
β/β Bxo/Bxo 0010/0010 02/02 C2.1(20:21)
C2.1(20:04) / -
13646 N22W88
(882",357")
α/β Axx/Cao 0010/0030 01/02 -
13652 N14W84
(919",236")
α/α Hsx/Hsx 0050/0070 02/01 -
13654 S07W50
(726",-70")
βγδ/βγ Ekc/Esi 0310/0230 25/18 -
13655 S26W47
(627",-374")
α/α Hsx/Hax 0060/0060 01/01 -
13657 S14W60
(801",-195")
α/β Axx/Bxo 0010/0010 01/03 -
13658 S22W91
(882",-356")
β/β Cao/Cro 0050/0050 04/06 -
13660 N10E36
(-553",221")
β/α Bxo/Hsx 0010/0030 03/01 -
13651 N09W91
(940",147")
/ / / / -
13653 N03W59
(816",86")
/ / / / -
13656 S12W35
(536",-141")
/ / / / -
13659 S13W22
(348",-150")
/ / / / -

Class (HH:MM) -Today
Class (HH:MM) -Yesterday

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: C2.3(00:17) C3.0(06:23) C3.5(07:27) C2.8(13:19) C1.9(15:30) C1.4(16:44) C8.5(19:14) C1.6(21:15) C1.6(23:04) M2.5(00:33) M3.7(00:54) C3.7(16:33) C8.4(20:06) C2.4(21:12) C2.6(21:26) C2.6(22:06) C7.7(22:51) C2.3(23:43)

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 29-Apr-2024 00:30 UT . The greyed out and light-blue entries are values from the previous day. Slashed cells indicate that the active region has no spots. The latest positions of the active regions are given in both heliographic and heliocentric co-ordinates. The region positions are valid on 29-Apr-2024 23:30 UT .