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 29 April 2003
⇐20030428 ⇐Week ⇐Rotation Today Rotation⇒ Week⇒ 20030430⇒

Welcome to the Flare Prediction System. This page lists the active regions present on the Sun today, together with their probability of producing C-, M-, or X-class events. Flare probabilities are calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data combined over 1969-1976 and 1988-1996 (details of which can be found in Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41, along with full forecast verification testing). The percentage probabilities are based on the number of flares produced by regions classified using the McIntosh classification scheme (McIntosh, P., 1990, Solar Physics, 125, 251) during cycles 21 and 22. For example, over both time periods there were 377 regions classified Eai. As this class produced 131 M-class events, the mean M-class flare rate is ~131/377 or ~0.347 flares per day. Assuming the number of flares per unit time is governed by Poisson statistics, we can estimate a flaring probability for the following 24-hours using P( one or more flares ) = 1 - exp( -mean ), i.e., P = 1 - exp( -0.347 ) ~ 0.29, or 29% for an Eai class region to produce one or more M-class flares in the next 24-hours.

See Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002),
Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87 and Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951 for further details.

Click here for a description of the various active region classifications from the Royal Observatory of Belgium.
Region Flare Probabilities (%)
Number McIntosh C-class M-class X-class
No Prediction Found

NOTE: Occurrence of '...' indicates that McIntosh class was not observed in the period over which the Poisson flare rate statistics were determined. Values in parantheses/brackets give the NOAA/SWPC forecast probabilities for the occurrence of one or more C-, M-, or X-class flares. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.

Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research.


Today's/Yesterday's NOAA Active Regions
NOAA Number
Latest
Position
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot Area
[millionths]
Number of Spots
Recent
Flares
10336 N14W83
(915",214") 		β/β Bxo/Bxo 0010/0010 04/04 C1.3(08:55)
C1.4(00:55)
/ C1.8(21:22)
10337 S14W67
(849",-273") 		βγδ/βγδ Dac/Dki 0270/0220 19/21 M1.1(04:32)
C1.0(00:22)
/ C2.1(15:10)
C4.4(03:57)
10344 N16W28
(430",160") 		βγδ/βγδ Dki/Dki 0450/0450 16/20 - / C3.3(18:11)
10345 S17E07
(-111",-388") 		β/β Dao/Dao 0210/0190 13/06 C1.0(07:48) / -
10346 N16E09
(-143",148") 		α/α Hsx/Hsx 0090/0060 02/01 -
10347 S20W05
(78",-434") 		β/β Bxo/Dro 0010/0020 03/03 -
10348 S36E18
(-238",-646") 		β/β Dso/Cso 0030/0030 09/07 -
10349 S14E19
(-301",-337") 		βγ/β Dki/Dao 0390/0150 29/15 C3.1(23:39)
C1.4(22:39)
C1.7(21:11)
C1.2(19:54)
C1.5(19:33)
C1.7(16:53)
C2.1(10:53)
C1.6(09:40)
C1.1(06:47) / -
10338 N18W91
(902",293") 		/βγ /Dai /0200 /07 - / C2.0(17:14)
C1.3(14:05)
C1.5(10:10)
10340 S07W53
(754",-185") 		/ / / / -
10341 S10W29
(455",-266") 		/ / / / -
10342 N17W91
(907",277") 		/α /Hsx /0030 /01 -
10343 N06W22
(355",-10") 		/β /Bxo /0010 /05 -

Class (HH:MM) -Today
Class (HH:MM) -Yesterday

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: None

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 29-Apr-2003 00:30 . The greyed out and light-blue entries are values from the previous day. Slashed cells indicate that the active region has no spots. The latest positions of the active regions are given in both heliographic and heliocentric co-ordinates. The region positions are valid on 29-Apr-2003 23:30 .