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30 July 2002
20020729 Week Rotation Today Rotation Week 20020731

Welcome to the Flare Prediction System. This page lists the active regions present on the Sun today, together with their probability of producing C-, M-, or X-class events. Flare probabilities are calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data combined over 1969-1976 and 1988-1996 (details of which can be found in Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41, along with full forecast verification testing). The percentage probabilities are based on the number of flares produced by regions classified using the McIntosh classification scheme (McIntosh, P., 1990, Solar Physics, 125, 251) during cycles 21 and 22. For example, over both time periods there were 377 regions classified Eai. As this class produced 131 M-class events, the mean M-class flare rate is ~131/377 or ~0.347 flares per day. Assuming the number of flares per unit time is governed by Poisson statistics, we can estimate a flaring probability for the following 24-hours using P( one or more flares ) = 1 - exp( -mean ), i.e., P = 1 - exp( -0.347 ) ~ 0.29, or 29% for an Eai class region to produce one or more M-class flares in the next 24-hours.

See Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002),
Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87 and Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951 for further details.

Click here for a description of the various active region classifications from the Royal Observatory of Belgium.

Region Flare Probabilities (%)
Number McIntosh C-class M-class X-class
No Prediction Found

NOTE: Occurrence of '...' indicates that McIntosh class was not observed in the period over which the Poisson flare rate statistics were determined. Values in parantheses/brackets give the NOAA/SWPC forecast probabilities for the occurrence of one or more C-, M-, or X-class flares. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.

Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research.

Today's/Yesterday's NOAA Active Regions
NOAA Number
McIntosh Class
Sunspot Area
Number of Spots
10038 N18W69
βγδ/βγδ Cso/Cso 0020/0020 02/03 -
10039 S15W32
βγδ/βγδ Ekc/Fki 0890/0920 57/48 -
10042 S22W78
αγδ/αγδ Axx/Hrx 0000/0010 01/01 -
10043 N12W40
βγδ/βγδ Dai/Dai 0190/0160 23/20 -
10044 S21W38
βγδ/βγδ Fai/Fki 0580/0530 42/43 -
10045 N06W67
βγδ/βγδ Bxo/Dao 0030/0110 06/12 -
10048 N20W02
βγδ/βγδ Dso/Dso 0060/0100 10/10 -
10050 S07W20
βγδ/βγδ Dki/Dao 0570/0290 31/23 -
10051 S17E26
αγδ/αγδ Hsx/Hsx 0060/0100 01/01 -
10052 N09W12
βγδ/βγδ Bxo/Cro 0010/0030 02/05 -
10053 S17W02
βγδ/αγδ Cso/Hrx 0020/0010 05/01 -
10054 S22E41
βγδ/βγδ Dso/Cro 0050/0040 04/02 -
10055 N14E61
αγδ/αγδ Hax/Hax 0080/0080 01/01 -

Class (HH:MM) -Today
Class (HH:MM) -Yesterday

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: None

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 30-Jul-2002 00:30 . The greyed out and light-blue entries are values from the previous day. Slashed cells indicate that the active region has no spots. The latest positions of the active regions are given in both heliographic and heliocentric co-ordinates. The region positions are valid on 30-Jul-2002 23:30 .