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29 July 2002
20020728 Week Rotation Today Rotation Week 20020730

Welcome to the Flare Prediction System. This page lists the active regions present on the Sun today, together with their probability of producing C-, M-, or X-class events. Flare probabilities are calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data combined over 1969-1976 and 1988-1996 (details of which can be found in Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41, along with full forecast verification testing). The percentage probabilities are based on the number of flares produced by regions classified using the McIntosh classification scheme (McIntosh, P., 1990, Solar Physics, 125, 251) during cycles 21 and 22. For example, over both time periods there were 377 regions classified Eai. As this class produced 131 M-class events, the mean M-class flare rate is ~131/377 or ~0.347 flares per day. Assuming the number of flares per unit time is governed by Poisson statistics, we can estimate a flaring probability for the following 24-hours using P( one or more flares ) = 1 - exp( -mean ), i.e., P = 1 - exp( -0.347 ) ~ 0.29, or 29% for an Eai class region to produce one or more M-class flares in the next 24-hours.

See Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002),
Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87 and Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951 for further details.

Click here for a description of the various active region classifications from the Royal Observatory of Belgium.

Region Flare Probabilities (%)
Number McIntosh C-class M-class X-class
No Prediction Found

NOTE: Occurrence of '...' indicates that McIntosh class was not observed in the period over which the Poisson flare rate statistics were determined. Values in parantheses/brackets give the NOAA/SWPC forecast probabilities for the occurrence of one or more C-, M-, or X-class flares. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.

Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research.

Today's/Yesterday's NOAA Active Regions
NOAA Number
McIntosh Class
Sunspot Area
Number of Spots
10037 N13W91
αγδ/α Hsx/Hsx 0090/0120 01/01 -
10038 N18W58
βγδ/α Cso/Hsx 0020/0020 03/02 -
10039 S15W18
βγδ/βγδ Fki/Fki 0920/0900 48/62 -
10042 S19W57
αγδ/αγδ Hrx/Hsx 0010/0020 01/03 -
10043 N12W27
βγδ/βγδ Dai/Dao 0160/0160 20/17 -
10044 S21W25
βγδ/βγδ Fki/Fki 0530/0590 43/45 -
10045 N05W53
βγδ/βγδ Dao/Dai 0110/0160 12/16 -
10048 N21E11
βγδ/βγδ Dso/Cso 0100/0050 10/09 -
10050 S07W05
βγδ/βγδ Dao/Dso 0290/0090 23/13 -
10051 S16E40
αγδ/βγδ Hsx/Cao 0100/0090 01/02 -
10052 N09E03
βγδ/βγδ Cro/Cro 0030/0030 05/05 -
10053 S17E10
αγδ/αγδ Hrx/Hrx 0010/0010 01/01 -
10054 S21E56
βγδ/βγδ Cro/Cro 0040/0040 02/02 -
10055 N14E61
αγδ/- Hax/--- 0080/---- 01/-- -

Class (HH:MM) -Today
Class (HH:MM) -Yesterday

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: None

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 29-Jul-2002 00:30 . The greyed out and light-blue entries are values from the previous day. Slashed cells indicate that the active region has no spots. The latest positions of the active regions are given in both heliographic and heliocentric co-ordinates. The region positions are valid on 29-Jul-2002 23:30 .