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29 December 2001
20011228 Week Rotation Today Rotation Week 20011230

Welcome to the Flare Prediction System. This page lists the active regions present on the Sun today, together with their probability of producing C-, M-, or X-class events. Flare probabilities are calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data combined over 1969-1976 and 1988-1996 (details of which can be found in Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41, along with full forecast verification testing). The percentage probabilities are based on the number of flares produced by regions classified using the McIntosh classification scheme (McIntosh, P., 1990, Solar Physics, 125, 251) during cycles 21 and 22. For example, over both time periods there were 377 regions classified Eai. As this class produced 131 M-class events, the mean M-class flare rate is ~131/377 or ~0.347 flares per day. Assuming the number of flares per unit time is governed by Poisson statistics, we can estimate a flaring probability for the following 24-hours using P( one or more flares ) = 1 - exp( -mean ), i.e., P = 1 - exp( -0.347 ) ~ 0.29, or 29% for an Eai class region to produce one or more M-class flares in the next 24-hours.

See Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002),
Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87 and Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951 for further details.

Click here for a description of the various active region classifications from the Royal Observatory of Belgium.

Region Flare Probabilities (%)
Number McIntosh C-class M-class X-class
No Prediction Found

NOTE: Occurrence of '...' indicates that McIntosh class was not observed in the period over which the Poisson flare rate statistics were determined. Values in parantheses/brackets give the NOAA/SWPC forecast probabilities for the occurrence of one or more C-, M-, or X-class flares. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.

Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research.

Today's/Yesterday's NOAA Active Regions
NOAA Number
McIntosh Class
Sunspot Area
Number of Spots
09742 N12W91
βγ/βγ Eki/Eki 0350/0690 07/14 -
09743 S10W91
αγ/αγ Hsx/Hsx 0060/0050 01/01 -
09748 S11W91
βγ/βγ Eao/Eao 0250/0330 12/16 -
09751 N04W38
βγ/βγ Eai/Eai 0380/0410 34/38 -
09753 S19W33
βγ/βγ Eso/Dso 0060/0050 13/12 -
09754 S08W16
βγ/βγ Fai/Eai 0200/0140 28/23 -
09755 S04E09
βγ/βγ Cso/Cao 0170/0150 06/08 -
09756 S29E33
βγ/αγ Cao/Hsx 0120/0070 05/01 -
09757 S10W40
βγ/βγ Bxo/Cro 0010/0020 03/06 -
09761 N10E33
αγ/αγ Hsx/Hsx 0070/0050 01/01 -
09762 N02W21
αγ/αγ Axx/Hsx 0000/0020 01/01 -
09763 N06E47
βγ/αγ Cso/Hsx 0080/0060 04/01 -
09764 N12E01
βγ/βγ Bxo/Bxo 0010/0010 05/05 -
09765 N05E64
βγ/βγ Dso/Dso 0070/0070 03/03 -

Class (HH:MM) -Today
Class (HH:MM) -Yesterday

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: None

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 29-Dec-2001 00:30 . The greyed out and light-blue entries are values from the previous day. Slashed cells indicate that the active region has no spots. The latest positions of the active regions are given in both heliographic and heliocentric co-ordinates. The region positions are valid on 29-Dec-2001 23:30 .