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 7 December 2001
⇐20011206 ⇐Week ⇐Rotation Today Rotation⇒ Week⇒ 20011208⇒

Welcome to the Flare Prediction System. This page lists the active regions present on the Sun today, together with their probability of producing C-, M-, or X-class events. Flare probabilities are calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data combined over 1969-1976 and 1988-1996 (details of which can be found in Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41, along with full forecast verification testing). The percentage probabilities are based on the number of flares produced by regions classified using the McIntosh classification scheme (McIntosh, P., 1990, Solar Physics, 125, 251) during cycles 21 and 22. For example, over both time periods there were 377 regions classified Eai. As this class produced 131 M-class events, the mean M-class flare rate is ~131/377 or ~0.347 flares per day. Assuming the number of flares per unit time is governed by Poisson statistics, we can estimate a flaring probability for the following 24-hours using P( one or more flares ) = 1 - exp( -mean ), i.e., P = 1 - exp( -0.347 ) ~ 0.29, or 29% for an Eai class region to produce one or more M-class flares in the next 24-hours.

See Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002),
Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87 and Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951 for further details.

Click here for a description of the various active region classifications from the Royal Observatory of Belgium.
Region Flare Probabilities (%)
Number McIntosh C-class M-class X-class
No Prediction Found

NOTE: Occurrence of '...' indicates that McIntosh class was not observed in the period over which the Poisson flare rate statistics were determined. Values in parantheses/brackets give the NOAA/SWPC forecast probabilities for the occurrence of one or more C-, M-, or X-class flares. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.

Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research.


Today's/Yesterday's NOAA Active Regions
NOAA Number
Latest
Position
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot Area
[millionths]
Number of Spots
Recent
Flares
09715 N03W91
(950",51") 		αγδ/βγδ Hsx/Dko 0160/0520 02/11 -
09716 S05W86
(946",-90") 		αγδ/βγδ Axx/Dao 0010/0070 02/10 -
09717 N05W58
(806",18") 		βγδ/βγδ Cso/Cso 0130/0150 04/04 -
09718 S07W52
(746",-189") 		βγδ/βγδ Eki/Eai 0720/0660 23/34 -
09720 S23W43
(599",-451") 		βγδ/βγδ Dso/Eso 0040/0060 09/11 -
09721 N11W39
(590",88") 		αγδ/αγδ Hsx/Hsx 0220/0210 03/01 -
09723 S04W39
(600",-159") 		βγδ/βγδ Dso/Dao 0040/0040 07/07 -
09724 N10W08
(131",47") 		βγδ/βγδ Dso/Dso 0040/0060 03/03 -
09726 S17E02
(-31",-392") 		βγδ/βγδ Cso/Dso 0070/0060 03/05 -
09727 S21E15
(-231",-448") 		βγδ/βγδ Dko/Dko 0400/0320 12/14 -
09728 N35W47
(572",476") 		βγδ/βγδ Dao/Dso 0100/0060 09/09 -
09729 N24W25
(369",285") 		βγδ/βγδ Dro/Cao 0020/0040 03/06 -
09730 S12E20
(-319",-308") 		βγδ/αγδ Cro/Hrx 0010/0020 02/02 -
09731 N24E22
(-327",283") 		βγδ/βγδ Dso/Dso 0040/0040 04/04 -
09732 N03E50
(-730",-27") 		βγδ/- Dso/--- 0070/---- 03/-- -

Class (HH:MM) -Today
Class (HH:MM) -Yesterday

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: None

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 07-Dec-2001 00:30 . The greyed out and light-blue entries are values from the previous day. Slashed cells indicate that the active region has no spots. The latest positions of the active regions are given in both heliographic and heliocentric co-ordinates. The region positions are valid on 07-Dec-2001 23:30 .