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25 June 2001
20010624 Week Rotation Today Rotation Week 20010626

Welcome to the Flare Prediction System. This page lists the active regions present on the Sun today, together with their probability of producing C-, M-, or X-class events. Flare probabilities are calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data combined over 1969-1976 and 1988-1996 (details of which can be found in Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41, along with full forecast verification testing). The percentage probabilities are based on the number of flares produced by regions classified using the McIntosh classification scheme (McIntosh, P., 1990, Solar Physics, 125, 251) during cycles 21 and 22. For example, over both time periods there were 377 regions classified Eai. As this class produced 131 M-class events, the mean M-class flare rate is ~131/377 or ~0.347 flares per day. Assuming the number of flares per unit time is governed by Poisson statistics, we can estimate a flaring probability for the following 24-hours using P( one or more flares ) = 1 - exp( -mean ), i.e., P = 1 - exp( -0.347 ) ~ 0.29, or 29% for an Eai class region to produce one or more M-class flares in the next 24-hours.

See Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002),
Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87 and Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951 for further details.

Click here for a description of the various active region classifications from the Royal Observatory of Belgium.

Region Flare Probabilities (%)
Number McIntosh C-class M-class X-class
No Prediction Found

NOTE: Occurrence of '...' indicates that McIntosh class was not observed in the period over which the Poisson flare rate statistics were determined. Values in parantheses/brackets give the NOAA/SWPC forecast probabilities for the occurrence of one or more C-, M-, or X-class flares. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.

Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research.

Today's/Yesterday's NOAA Active Regions
NOAA Number
McIntosh Class
Sunspot Area
Number of Spots
09503 N15W89
βγδ/βγ Eao/Fao 0250/0310 17/20 -
09504 N07W84
βγδ/βγ Dso/Cko 0250/0260 04/05 -
09506 N17W60
βγδ/βγ Fso/Fao 0220/0270 09/13 -
09509 S10W90
βγδ/βγ Cso/Cso 0050/0060 03/05 -
09511 N10W14
βγδ/βγδ Dai/Dao 0100/0110 21/22 -
09512 S22W23
βγδ/βγδ Eai/Eao 0220/0130 24/17 -
09513 N23E30
βγδ/βγδ Eao/Fao 0200/0160 19/13 -
09514 N17E27
αγδ/αγδ Hax/Hsx 0050/0040 01/03 -
09515 S06E18
βγδ/βγδ Dao/Cao 0140/0070 12/05 -
09516 N11E41
αγδ/αγδ Hsx/Hax 0090/0090 02/01 -
09517 S15W73
βγδ/- Bxo/--- 0030/---- 03/-- -

Class (HH:MM) -Today
Class (HH:MM) -Yesterday

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: None

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 25-Jun-2001 00:30 . The greyed out and light-blue entries are values from the previous day. Slashed cells indicate that the active region has no spots. The latest positions of the active regions are given in both heliographic and heliocentric co-ordinates. The region positions are valid on 25-Jun-2001 23:30 .