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10 September 2024
20240909 Week Rotation Today Rotation Week 20240911

NOAA Number McIntosh Class C-class M-class X-class

13806
13811
13813
13814
13815
13816
13819
13820
13821
13822

Cai/Cso
Dsi/Dso
Dsi/Esi
Eho/Dso
Hsx/Cso
Cao/Cro
Bxo/Cro
Bxi/Csi
Hsx/Hsx
Dso/Cso
Dao/---
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
83 40 0
52 58 55
86 58 25
... 52 75
6 5 10
27 22 25
... 0 5
3 5 5
23 30 20
... 36 50
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
0 12 0
4 12 15
39 12 5
... 14 35
0 3 1
4 3 5
... 6 1
0 3 1
2 7 1
... 7 20
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
0 0 0
0 0 1
0 0 1
... 0 10
0 0 1
0 0 1
... 0 1
0 0 1
0 1 1
... 0 5

Solar Monitor's flare prediction system's probabilities are calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data. There are two main methods, MCSTAT and MCEVOL, that use sunspot-group McIntosh classifications and Poisson statistics to calculate flaring probabilities valid for a 24-hr period*. The flaring probabilities are calculated using historical data from the periods 1969-1976 & 1988-1996 (MCSTAT) and 1988-2008 (MCEVOL).

MCSTAT – Uses point-in-time McIntosh classifications to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method [1] and forecast verification testing [2] can be found in the following papers:

[1] Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002)
[2] Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41

MCEVOL – Uses the evolution of McIntosh classifications over a 24-hr period to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method and flaring rate statistics can be found in the following:

[1] McCloskey, A.E., Gallagher, P.T. & Bloomfield, D.S., Solar Physics, 291, 1711, (2016)

Further Reading:
Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87
Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951


Notes:

'...' = McIntosh class or evolution was not observed in the period over which the Poisson flare rate statistics were determined.
* When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.


Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any queries regarding this research.



Today's/Yesterday's NOAA Active Regions
NOAA Number
Latest
Position
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot Area
[millionths]
Number of Spots
Recent
Flares
13806 S11W91
(934",-178")
β/β Cai/Cso 0070/0090 05/10 M1.6(15:34)
C5.7(10:57)
C3.9(08:29)
C3.5(08:14)
C4.5(04:21) / -
13811 S11W64
(841",-232")
βγ/βγ Dsi/Dso 0230/0240 19/09 -
13813 S22W39
(557",-441")
β/βγ Dsi/Esi 0130/0220 12/10 -
13814 N16W04
(64",145")
βγ/βγ Eho/Dso 0250/0230 12/10 -
13815 S27W27
(386",-526")
α/β Hsx/Cso 0140/0170 02/05 -
13816 S11W38
(577",-274")
β/β Cao/Cro 0060/0005 12/01 -
13818 S13W77
(905",-239")
β/β Bxo/Cro 0005/0020 02/03 C4.6(18:57)
C5.3(14:51)
- / M1.7(09:57)
M1.5(08:41)
13819 S27W22
(319",-530")
β/β Bxi/Csi 0020/0010 17/08 -
13820 S19W38
(556",-398")
α/α Hsx/Hsx 0020/0020 04/01 -
13821 N13W65
(842",163")
β/β Dso/Cso 0040/0030 06/05 -
13822 N14E09
(-145",114")
β/- Dao/--- 0060/---- 12/-- -
13808 S11W91
(934",-178")
/β /Cao /0060 /04 - / C3.9(20:21)
13809 S21W91
(888",-336")
/ / / / -
13810 N16W91
(915",262")
/ / / / -
13812 N14W80
(911",208")
/ / / / -
13817 S14W05
(80",-346")
/ / / / C4.3(20:48)
C3.9(17:53)
C4.0(14:47)
C4.0(12:47) / -

Class (HH:MM) -Today
Class (HH:MM) -Yesterday

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: C6.1(05:36) C3.7(09:51) C9.9(12:33) M1.0(12:11) M3.4(16:58) M1.2(23:14)

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 10-Sep-2024 00:30 UT . The greyed out and light-blue entries are values from the previous day. Slashed cells indicate that the active region has no spots. The latest positions of the active regions are given in both heliographic and heliocentric co-ordinates. The region positions are valid on 10-Sep-2024 23:30 UT .