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19 August 2024
20240818 Week Rotation Today Rotation Week 20240820

NOAA Number McIntosh Class C-class M-class X-class

13784
13785
13788
13789
13790
13792
13793
13794
13796

Dkc/Dkc
Dai/Eai
Hsx/Cso
Cai/Dai
Dkc/Dsi
Hhx/Hsx
Dao/Dso
Cao/Hax
Axx/---
Cao/---
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
89 80 70
48 66 45
6 5 5
18 40 35
... 80 65
0 6 20
32 36 25
26 22 25
... 22 60
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
46 49 25
10 16 5
0 3 1
0 12 5
... 49 25
0 8 1
5 7 5
5 3 5
... 3 20
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
7 9 5
0 2 1
0 0 1
0 0 1
... 9 5
0 1 1
0 0 1
0 0 1
... 0 1

Solar Monitor's flare prediction system's probabilities are calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data. There are two main methods, MCSTAT and MCEVOL, that use sunspot-group McIntosh classifications and Poisson statistics to calculate flaring probabilities valid for a 24-hr period*. The flaring probabilities are calculated using historical data from the periods 1969-1976 & 1988-1996 (MCSTAT) and 1988-2008 (MCEVOL).

MCSTAT – Uses point-in-time McIntosh classifications to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method [1] and forecast verification testing [2] can be found in the following papers:

[1] Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002)
[2] Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41

MCEVOL – Uses the evolution of McIntosh classifications over a 24-hr period to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method and flaring rate statistics can be found in the following:

[1] McCloskey, A.E., Gallagher, P.T. & Bloomfield, D.S., Solar Physics, 291, 1711, (2016)

Further Reading:
Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87
Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951


Notes:

'...' = McIntosh class or evolution was not observed in the period over which the Poisson flare rate statistics were determined.
* When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.


Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any queries regarding this research.



Today's/Yesterday's NOAA Active Regions
NOAA Number
Latest
Position
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot Area
[millionths]
Number of Spots
Recent
Flares
13784 N16W74
(876",229")
βγδ/βγδ Dkc/Dkc 0650/0680 14/16 -
13785 S15W64
(824",-292")
β/β Dai/Eai 0100/0090 13/17 -
13788 S08W46
(677",-209")
α/β Hsx/Cso 0100/0130 01/03 -
13789 N27W41
(555",352")
β/β Cai/Dai 0050/0050 07/12 -
13790 S12E19
(-303",-301")
βγ/βγ Dkc/Dsi 0280/0120 13/12 -
13792 S16E33
(-497",-351")
α/α Hhx/Hsx 0260/0220 01/01 -
13793 N22E20
(-301",254")
β/β Dao/Dso 0080/0040 06/04 -
13794 N18E03
(-47",183")
β/α Cao/Hax 0060/0010 08/01 -
13795 N04E55
(-776",0")
α/- Axx/--- 0010/---- 01/-- -
13796 S05E58
(-802",-142")
β/- Cao/--- 0050/---- 06/-- -
13782 N04W91
(945",67")
/ / / / -
13791 S18E07
(-110",-399")
/β /Bxo /0010 /03 -

Class (HH:MM) -Today
Class (HH:MM) -Yesterday

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: C7.7(01:34) C4.1(02:59) C5.5(04:14) C4.3(05:06) C4.3(08:24) C5.7(11:33) C3.6(13:07) C6.3(13:53) C6.4(14:15) C4.4(15:45) C7.2(16:26) C5.1(17:07) C9.8(20:03) M1.4(09:28) M3.7(21:41) C5.0(13:13) C4.6(17:33) C5.7(22:33) M1.4(20:52) M1.4(23:46)

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 19-Aug-2024 00:30 UT . The greyed out and light-blue entries are values from the previous day. Slashed cells indicate that the active region has no spots. The latest positions of the active regions are given in both heliographic and heliocentric co-ordinates. The region positions are valid on 19-Aug-2024 23:30 UT .