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6 August 2024
20240805 Week Rotation Today Rotation Week 20240807

NOAA Number McIntosh Class C-class M-class X-class

13769
13772
13774
13775
13777
13779
13780
13781

Hsx/Hsx
Eki/Ekc
Ekc/Ekc
Dai/Dai
Dao/Cao
Dao/Dao
Fkc/Dai
Dso/---
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
3 5 10
65 81 75
90 93 85
49 66 35
40 36 60
27 36 25
... 92 90
... 30 20
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
0 3 1
31 42 25
47 82 35
10 16 5
7 7 15
4 7 5
... 79 50
... 7 5
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
0 0 1
0 7 5
9 20 10
0 2 1
0 0 1
0 0 1
... 27 15
... 1 1

Solar Monitor's flare prediction system's probabilities are calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data. There are two main methods, MCSTAT and MCEVOL, that use sunspot-group McIntosh classifications and Poisson statistics to calculate flaring probabilities valid for a 24-hr period*. The flaring probabilities are calculated using historical data from the periods 1969-1976 & 1988-1996 (MCSTAT) and 1988-2008 (MCEVOL).

MCSTAT – Uses point-in-time McIntosh classifications to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method [1] and forecast verification testing [2] can be found in the following papers:

[1] Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002)
[2] Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41

MCEVOL – Uses the evolution of McIntosh classifications over a 24-hr period to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method and flaring rate statistics can be found in the following:

[1] McCloskey, A.E., Gallagher, P.T. & Bloomfield, D.S., Solar Physics, 291, 1711, (2016)

Further Reading:
Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87
Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951


Notes:

'...' = McIntosh class or evolution was not observed in the period over which the Poisson flare rate statistics were determined.
* When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.


Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any queries regarding this research.



Today's/Yesterday's NOAA Active Regions
NOAA Number
Latest
Position
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot Area
[millionths]
Number of Spots
Recent
Flares
13769 N23W69
(813",334")
α/α Hsx/Hsx 0130/0110 01/03 -
13772 S25W34
(480",-475")
βγδ/βγδ Eki/Ekc 0330/0420 17/21 -
13774 S07W11
(179",-215")
βγ/βγδ Ekc/Ekc 0400/0370 28/31 C6.8(14:11)
C4.9(07:01) / -
13775 N18W21
(323",200")
βγ/βγ Dai/Dai 0060/0120 15/10 -
13777 S09E07
(-114",-248")
β/β Dao/Cao 0130/0070 10/02 -
13779 S15W04
(63",-343")
β/β Dao/Dao 0060/0070 03/04 -
13780 S13E44
(-641",-283")
βγδ/β Fkc/Dai 0930/0190 33/07 -
13781 N13E53
(-737",151")
β/- Dso/--- 0160/---- 02/-- -
13776 N09W35
(537",64")
/ / / / -
13778 S18W91
(898",-288")
/ / / / -

Class (HH:MM) -Today
Class (HH:MM) -Yesterday

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: C4.5(00:19) C7.8(01:03) C3.9(04:12) C4.2(06:13) C4.9(09:14) C8.3(11:24) C5.8(16:11) C4.8(20:38) M1.2(02:50) C9.7(18:42) C3.7(19:19) C3.6(19:40) C3.5(21:42) C4.6(23:16) M1.0(17:56) M1.2(18:20) X1.1(15:18) X1.7(13:24) X1.1(15:18)

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 6-Aug-2024 00:30 UT . The greyed out and light-blue entries are values from the previous day. Slashed cells indicate that the active region has no spots. The latest positions of the active regions are given in both heliographic and heliocentric co-ordinates. The region positions are valid on 6-Aug-2024 23:30 UT .