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15 December 2023
20231214 Week Rotation Today Rotation Week 20231216

NOAA Number McIntosh Class C-class M-class X-class

13513
13514
13515
13516
13517
13518
13519
13520

Cao/Cao
Ekc/Dai
Axx/Hrx
Axx/Axx
Hax/Cro
Cro/Hax
Dso/Dao
Hsx/Cao
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
17 22 20
78 93 90
1 3 5
2 3 5
0 8 10
26 13 15
21 30 25
5 5 10
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
2 3 1
39 82 55
0 1 1
0 1 1
0 3 1
10 2 1
3 7 5
1 3 1
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
0 0 1
0 20 25
0 0 1
0 0 1
0 0 1
0 0 1
0 1 1
0 0 1

Solar Monitor's flare prediction system's probabilities are calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data. There are two main methods, MCSTAT and MCEVOL, that use sunspot-group McIntosh classifications and Poisson statistics to calculate flaring probabilities valid for a 24-hr period*. The flaring probabilities are calculated using historical data from the periods 1969-1976 & 1988-1996 (MCSTAT) and 1988-2008 (MCEVOL).

MCSTAT – Uses point-in-time McIntosh classifications to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method [1] and forecast verification testing [2] can be found in the following papers:

[1] Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002)
[2] Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41

MCEVOL – Uses the evolution of McIntosh classifications over a 24-hr period to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method and flaring rate statistics can be found in the following:

[1] McCloskey, A.E., Gallagher, P.T. & Bloomfield, D.S., Solar Physics, 291, 1711, (2016)

Further Reading:
Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87
Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951


Notes:

'...' = McIntosh class or evolution was not observed in the period over which the Poisson flare rate statistics were determined.
* When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.


Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any queries regarding this research.



Today's/Yesterday's NOAA Active Regions
NOAA Number
Latest
Position
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot Area
[millionths]
Number of Spots
Recent
Flares
13513 N18W66
(848",307")
β/β Cao/Cao 0100/0180 02/05 C1.5(19:36) / -
13514 N05W62
(858",92")
βδ/β Ekc/Dai 0470/0050 21/05 -
13515 S12W13
(215",-188")
α/α Axx/Hrx 0010/0030 01/02 -
13516 S17W13
(210",-271")
α/α Axx/Axx 0010/0010 01/03 -
13517 N11W53
(765",195")
α/β Hax/Cro 0010/0010 02/03 -
13518 N13E39
(-599",232")
β/α Cro/Hax 0020/0040 03/01 -
13519 S12E16
(-263",-188")
β/β Dso/Dao 0200/0050 15/04 -
13520 N07W58
(822",127")
α/β Hsx/Cao 0120/0210 01/11 -

Class (HH:MM) -Today
Class (HH:MM) -Yesterday

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: C5.2(00:47) C4.5(03:20) C3.8(03:39) C2.1(05:20) C7.4(05:43) C3.8(06:14) C2.0(06:33) C3.6(11:29) C2.6(12:29) M6.3(07:03) M6.9(07:23) C1.9(12:25) C1.8(12:40) C3.7(16:35) C4.9(16:42) C5.4(23:31) M5.8(07:11) M2.3(13:29) X2.8(16:47)

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 15-Dec-2023 00:30 UT . The greyed out and light-blue entries are values from the previous day. Slashed cells indicate that the active region has no spots. The latest positions of the active regions are given in both heliographic and heliocentric co-ordinates. The region positions are valid on 15-Dec-2023 20:30 UT .