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4 March 2023
20230303 Week Rotation Today Rotation Week 20230305

NOAA Number McIntosh Class C-class M-class X-class

13234
13238
13239
13240
13241
13242
13243
13244
13245

Ekc/Ekc
Hsx/Hsx
Hsx/Hsx
Cro/Bxo
Hsx/Hsx
Cao/---
Bxo/---
Cro/---
Hsx/---
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
90 93 95
3 5 5
3 5 10
13 13 15
3 5 5
... 22 20
... 6 5
... 13 15
... 5 5
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
47 82 45
0 3 1
0 3 1
1 2 1
0 3 1
... 3 1
... 1 1
... 2 1
... 3 1
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
9 20 15
0 0 1
0 0 1
0 0 1
0 0 1
... 0 1
... 0 1
... 0 1
... 0 1

Solar Monitor's flare prediction system's probabilities are calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data. There are two main methods, MCSTAT and MCEVOL, that use sunspot-group McIntosh classifications and Poisson statistics to calculate flaring probabilities valid for a 24-hr period*. The flaring probabilities are calculated using historical data from the periods 1969-1976 & 1988-1996 (MCSTAT) and 1988-2008 (MCEVOL).

MCSTAT – Uses point-in-time McIntosh classifications to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method [1] and forecast verification testing [2] can be found in the following papers:

[1] Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002)
[2] Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41

MCEVOL – Uses the evolution of McIntosh classifications over a 24-hr period to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method and flaring rate statistics can be found in the following:

[1] McCloskey, A.E., Gallagher, P.T. & Bloomfield, D.S., Solar Physics, 291, 1711, (2016)

Further Reading:
Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87
Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951


Notes:

'...' = McIntosh class or evolution was not observed in the period over which the Poisson flare rate statistics were determined.
* When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.


Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any queries regarding this research.



Today's/Yesterday's NOAA Active Regions
NOAA Number
Latest
Position
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot Area
[millionths]
Number of Spots
Recent
Flares
13234 N25W88
(875",409")
βγδ/βγδ Ekc/Ekc 0820/0830 18/20 -
13238 N09W03
(50",271")
α/α Hsx/Hsx 0070/0070 01/01 -
13239 N31E16
(-229",596")
α/α Hsx/Hsx 0100/0100 01/01 -
13240 S16E16
(-257",-152")
β/β Cro/Bxo 0030/0010 06/02 -
13241 N27E34
(-483",527")
α/α Hsx/Hsx 0070/0070 02/02 -
13242 N10E41
(-626",258")
β/- Cao/--- 0230/---- 08/-- -
13243 N18W49
(696",373")
β/- Bxo/--- 0010/---- 04/-- -
13244 S22W31
(463",-263")
β/- Cro/--- 0020/---- 02/-- -
13245 S23E62
(-787",-322")
α/- Hsx/--- 0080/---- 01/-- -
13236 S26W91
(869",-422")
/β /Bxo /0010 /02 -
13237 S08W77
(934",-106")
/ / / / -

Class (HH:MM) -Today
Class (HH:MM) -Yesterday

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: C4.2(00:01) C5.3(02:17) C3.9(04:54) C3.9(04:56) C5.6(07:21) C6.7(08:13) C4.9(09:03) C4.9(09:18) C2.9(10:31) C2.6(11:46) C4.1(11:54) C3.9(12:22) C6.0(13:09) C4.8(14:35) C9.0(14:54) C4.8(19:50) M1.0(07:06) M1.2(13:34) M5.3(15:19) C3.5(23:22)

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 4-Mar-2023 00:30 UT . The greyed out and light-blue entries are values from the previous day. Slashed cells indicate that the active region has no spots. The latest positions of the active regions are given in both heliographic and heliocentric co-ordinates. The region positions are valid on 4-Mar-2023 20:30 UT .