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15 January 2022
20220114 Week Rotation Today Rotation Week 20220116

NOAA Number McIntosh Class C-class M-class X-class

12924
12925
12926
12927
12928
12929
12930
12931

Eso/Eho
Hsx/Hsx
Hsx/Cro
Hsx/Hsx
Bxo/Dso
Dso/Bxo
Bxo/Bxo
Dso/Bxo
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
0 32 30
3 5 10
6 5 5
3 5 5
8 6 10
40 30 25
8 6 5
40 30 25
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
0 11 5
0 3 1
0 3 1
0 3 1
2 1 1
4 7 5
1 1 1
4 7 5
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
0 0 1
0 0 1
0 0 1
0 0 1
0 0 1
0 1 1
0 0 1
0 1 1

Solar Monitor's flare prediction system's probabilities are calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data. There are two main methods, MCSTAT and MCEVOL, that use sunspot-group McIntosh classifications and Poisson statistics to calculate flaring probabilities valid for a 24-hr period*. The flaring probabilities are calculated using historical data from the periods 1969-1976 & 1988-1996 (MCSTAT) and 1988-2008 (MCEVOL).

MCSTAT – Uses point-in-time McIntosh classifications to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method [1] and forecast verification testing [2] can be found in the following papers:

[1] Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002)
[2] Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41

MCEVOL – Uses the evolution of McIntosh classifications over a 24-hr period to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method and flaring rate statistics can be found in the following:

[1] McCloskey, A.E., Gallagher, P.T. & Bloomfield, D.S., Solar Physics, 291, 1711, (2016)

Further Reading:
Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87
Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951


Notes:

'...' = McIntosh class or evolution was not observed in the period over which the Poisson flare rate statistics were determined.
* When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.


Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any queries regarding this research.



Today's/Yesterday's NOAA Active Regions
NOAA Number
Latest
Position
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot Area
[millionths]
Number of Spots
Recent
Flares
12924 S29W91
(852",-472")
β/βγ Eso/Eho 0220/0390 04/11 -
12925 S33W57
(687",-494")
α/α Hsx/Hsx 0050/0080 01/01 -
12926 N19W91
(921",315")
α/β Hsx/Cro 0020/0030 01/06 -
12927 S20W11
(175",-261")
α/α Hsx/Hsx 0050/0080 01/01 C1.3(18:31) / -
12928 S21W40
(587",-293")
β/β Bxo/Dso 0020/0070 04/03 -
12929 N08W17
(283",210")
β/β Dso/Bxo 0100/0010 07/02 -
12930 N21W19
(297",419")
β/β Bxo/Bxo 0020/0010 05/04 -
12931 N13W55
(780",263")
β/β Dso/Bxo 0100/0010 09/03 -

Class (HH:MM) -Today
Class (HH:MM) -Yesterday

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: C1.3(06:50) C4.2(08:33) C2.1(11:44) C1.1(12:36) C4.4(13:07) C3.5(14:16) C2.5(19:25) M1.8(01:47)

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 15-Jan-2022 00:30 UT . The greyed out and light-blue entries are values from the previous day. Slashed cells indicate that the active region has no spots. The latest positions of the active regions are given in both heliographic and heliocentric co-ordinates. The region positions are valid on 15-Jan-2022 20:30 UT .