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17 May 2024
20240516 Week Rotation Today Rotation Week 20240518

NOAA Number McIntosh Class C-class M-class X-class

13667
13670
13671
13672
13673
13674
13676
13679
13680
13682
13683
13685

Hsx/Hsx
Dao/Dao
Bxo/Cro
Cao/Hax
Hax/Hrx
Cso/Cso
Cso/Cso
Eso/Dso
Axx/Axx
Cro/Cso
Dro/Dro
Bxo/---
Dso/---
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
3 5 0
27 36 10
8 6 10
26 22 10
13 8 10
14 17 15
14 17 10
37 32 30
2 3 5
12 13 5
7 17 20
... 30 20
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
0 3 0
4 7 1
1 1 1
5 3 1
0 3 1
1 3 1
1 3 1
0 11 5
0 1 1
1 2 1
0 6 5
... 7 5
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
0 0 0
0 0 1
0 0 1
0 0 1
0 0 1
0 0 1
0 0 1
0 0 1
0 0 1
0 0 1
0 0 1
... 1 1

Solar Monitor's flare prediction system's probabilities are calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data. There are two main methods, MCSTAT and MCEVOL, that use sunspot-group McIntosh classifications and Poisson statistics to calculate flaring probabilities valid for a 24-hr period*. The flaring probabilities are calculated using historical data from the periods 1969-1976 & 1988-1996 (MCSTAT) and 1988-2008 (MCEVOL).

MCSTAT – Uses point-in-time McIntosh classifications to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method [1] and forecast verification testing [2] can be found in the following papers:

[1] Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002)
[2] Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41

MCEVOL – Uses the evolution of McIntosh classifications over a 24-hr period to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method and flaring rate statistics can be found in the following:

[1] McCloskey, A.E., Gallagher, P.T. & Bloomfield, D.S., Solar Physics, 291, 1711, (2016)

Further Reading:
Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87
Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951


Notes:

'...' = McIntosh class or evolution was not observed in the period over which the Poisson flare rate statistics were determined.
* When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.


Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any queries regarding this research.



Today's/Yesterday's NOAA Active Regions
NOAA Number
Latest
Position
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot Area
[millionths]
Number of Spots
Recent
Flares
13667 N28W91
(836",444")
α/α Hsx/Hsx 0050/0120 01/01 -
13670 N21W76
(859",348")
βγ/βγ Dao/Dao 0020/0010 02/07 -
13671 N21W78
(866",347")
β/β Bxo/Cro 0010/0030 05/07 -
13672 N18W51
(702",316")
β/α Cao/Hax 0050/0040 05/01 -
13673 S08W28
(442",-98")
α/α Hax/Hrx 0020/0020 01/01 -
13674 S12W17
(272",-162")
β/β Cso/Cso 0130/0120 18/10 C2.9(00:14)
/ C3.9(18:27)
C3.6(14:41)
13676 S20W61
(780",-307")
βγ/βγ Cso/Cso 0090/0090 05/04 -
13679 S10E04
(-65",-127")
βγ/βγδ Eso/Dso 0230/0240 13/07 -
13680 N18E08
(-126",330")
α/α Axx/Axx 0010/0010 02/02 -
13682 N16E16
(-252",297")
βγ/βγ Cro/Cso 0030/0080 07/06 -
13683 S23W35
(502",-342")
β/β Dro/Dro 0030/0030 08/05 -
13684 S06E37
(-569",-69")
β/- Bxo/--- 0010/---- 04/-- -
13685 S13E50
(-709",-189")
βγ/- Dso/--- 0180/---- 07/-- -
13678 N09W06
(98",186")
/ / / / -
13681 S07W78
(921",-107")
/ / / / -

Class (HH:MM) -Today
Class (HH:MM) -Yesterday

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: C8.7(01:33) C3.9(02:23) C3.1(05:03) C2.6(07:15) C3.7(12:04) C4.8(12:37) C3.1(13:20) C2.8(19:51) C2.7(20:09) M7.3(20:33) C5.1(06:21) C3.3(12:48) C4.5(16:30) C4.9(20:27) C2.8(22:24) C2.6(22:54) M1.0(07:50)

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 17-May-2024 00:30 UT . The greyed out and light-blue entries are values from the previous day. Slashed cells indicate that the active region has no spots. The latest positions of the active regions are given in both heliographic and heliocentric co-ordinates. The region positions are valid on 17-May-2024 23:30 UT .