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12 February 2024
20240211 Week Rotation Today Rotation Week 20240213

NOAA Number McIntosh Class C-class M-class X-class

13571
13576
13579
13581
13582
13583
13584

Hsx/Hsx
Fkc/Fkc
Hsx/Hsx
Hsx/Hsx
Cao/Cao
Dso/Cro
Hsx/Hsx
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
3 5 5
92 92 99
3 5 5
3 5 5
17 22 25
39 30 40
3 5 5
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
0 3 1
66 79 65
0 3 1
0 3 1
2 3 5
4 7 10
0 3 1
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
0 0 1
15 27 20
0 0 1
0 0 1
0 0 1
0 1 1
0 0 1

Solar Monitor's flare prediction system's probabilities are calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data. There are two main methods, MCSTAT and MCEVOL, that use sunspot-group McIntosh classifications and Poisson statistics to calculate flaring probabilities valid for a 24-hr period*. The flaring probabilities are calculated using historical data from the periods 1969-1976 & 1988-1996 (MCSTAT) and 1988-2008 (MCEVOL).

MCSTAT – Uses point-in-time McIntosh classifications to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method [1] and forecast verification testing [2] can be found in the following papers:

[1] Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002)
[2] Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41

MCEVOL – Uses the evolution of McIntosh classifications over a 24-hr period to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method and flaring rate statistics can be found in the following:

[1] McCloskey, A.E., Gallagher, P.T. & Bloomfield, D.S., Solar Physics, 291, 1711, (2016)

Further Reading:
Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87
Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951


Notes:

'...' = McIntosh class or evolution was not observed in the period over which the Poisson flare rate statistics were determined.
* When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.


Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any queries regarding this research.



Today's/Yesterday's NOAA Active Regions
NOAA Number
Latest
Position
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot Area
[millionths]
Number of Spots
Recent
Flares
13571 S17W80
(915",-263")
α/α Hsx/Hsx 0060/0080 03/03 -
13576 S16W35
(537",-177")
βγδ/βγδ Fkc/Fkc 0740/0730 44/36 -
13579 S09W22
(361",-47")
α/α Hsx/Hsx 0020/0020 01/01 -
13581 S21E19
(-296",-246")
α/α Hsx/Hsx 0080/0100 02/01 -
13582 N06W11
(185",212")
β/β Cao/Cao 0060/0040 09/06 C4.1(12:34)
C3.0(08:36)
C2.3(23:50)
/ M1.1(22:35)
13583 N09E17
(-281",259")
β/β Dso/Cro 0110/0020 14/06 -
13584 S15E45
(-665",-172")
α/α Hsx/Hsx 0020/0020 01/01 -
13574 N16W72
(889",299")
/α /Axx /0010 /01 -
13577 N22W69
(842",399")
/ / / / -
13578 S04W31
(501",29")
/ / / / - / C3.2(17:30)
13580 N21W91
(906",343")
/α /Axx /0010 /01 -

Class (HH:MM) -Today
Class (HH:MM) -Yesterday

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: C2.2(00:04) C5.9(01:35) C6.3(01:45) C3.2(02:21) C7.0(05:43) C5.3(06:03) C2.2(07:11) C3.9(10:56) C3.8(11:20) C4.6(14:22) M6.5(03:23) M6.5(03:23) M1.1(12:50) M1.5(15:31) C2.3(18:19) C3.1(19:57)

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 12-Feb-2024 00:30 UT . The greyed out and light-blue entries are values from the previous day. Slashed cells indicate that the active region has no spots. The latest positions of the active regions are given in both heliographic and heliocentric co-ordinates. The region positions are valid on 12-Feb-2024 20:30 UT .