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1 February 2024
20240131 Week Rotation Today Rotation Week 20240202

NOAA Number McIntosh Class C-class M-class X-class

13565
13566
13567
13568
13569

Dso/Dao
Dao/Bxo
Dai/Dso
Bxo/Bxo
Axx/---
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
21 30 20
41 36 25
68 66 45
8 6 10
... 3 5
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
3 7 5
7 7 5
15 16 10
1 1 1
... 1 1
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
0 1 1
0 0 1
0 2 1
0 0 1
... 0 1

Solar Monitor's flare prediction system's probabilities are calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data. There are two main methods, MCSTAT and MCEVOL, that use sunspot-group McIntosh classifications and Poisson statistics to calculate flaring probabilities valid for a 24-hr period*. The flaring probabilities are calculated using historical data from the periods 1969-1976 & 1988-1996 (MCSTAT) and 1988-2008 (MCEVOL).

MCSTAT – Uses point-in-time McIntosh classifications to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method [1] and forecast verification testing [2] can be found in the following papers:

[1] Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002)
[2] Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41

MCEVOL – Uses the evolution of McIntosh classifications over a 24-hr period to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method and flaring rate statistics can be found in the following:

[1] McCloskey, A.E., Gallagher, P.T. & Bloomfield, D.S., Solar Physics, 291, 1711, (2016)

Further Reading:
Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87
Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951


Notes:

'...' = McIntosh class or evolution was not observed in the period over which the Poisson flare rate statistics were determined.
* When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.


Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any queries regarding this research.



Today's/Yesterday's NOAA Active Regions
NOAA Number
Latest
Position
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot Area
[millionths]
Number of Spots
Recent
Flares
13565 N07E11
(-185",218")
β/β Dso/Dao 0050/0050 05/05 -
13566 S13W87
(947",-212")
β/β Dao/Bxo 0080/0010 03/02 -
13567 N19E42
(-617",388")
β/β Dai/Dso 0220/0210 12/04 -
13568 S10W63
(855",-122")
β/β Bxo/Bxo 0030/0010 04/02 -
13569 S12W22
(358",-108")
α/- Axx/--- 0010/---- 01/-- -
13563 S05W51
(755",-20")
/ / / / -
13564 S14W01
(16",-135")
/ / / / -

Class (HH:MM) -Today
Class (HH:MM) -Yesterday

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: C1.4(03:48) C1.0(06:06) C2.0(06:29) C3.0(06:36) C3.1(07:22) C1.6(14:38) C2.5(14:57) C1.3(18:47) C4.5(08:16) C1.6(09:38) C1.0(10:11) C1.3(10:59) C1.5(12:05) C1.7(13:10) C2.4(13:40) C1.1(16:44) C1.1(17:06) C1.2(20:22) C1.6(20:40) C1.5(21:21)

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 1-Feb-2024 00:30 UT . The greyed out and light-blue entries are values from the previous day. Slashed cells indicate that the active region has no spots. The latest positions of the active regions are given in both heliographic and heliocentric co-ordinates. The region positions are valid on 1-Feb-2024 20:30 UT .