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23 January 2024
20240122 Week Rotation Today Rotation Week 20240124

NOAA Number McIntosh Class C-class M-class X-class

13549
13553
13555
13556
13559
13560
13561
13562

Hsx/Hsx
Axx/Hrx
Hsx/Cso
Hax/Hax
Fkc/Fkc
Cao/Cri
Dai/Dri
Dao/Dao
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
3 5 10
1 3 10
6 5 10
7 8 25
92 92 95
... 22 30
99 66 50
27 36 30
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
0 3 1
0 1 1
0 3 1
0 3 5
66 79 50
... 3 5
0 16 10
4 7 5
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
0 0 1
0 0 1
0 0 1
0 0 1
15 27 10
... 0 1
0 2 1
0 0 1

Solar Monitor's flare prediction system's probabilities are calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data. There are two main methods, MCSTAT and MCEVOL, that use sunspot-group McIntosh classifications and Poisson statistics to calculate flaring probabilities valid for a 24-hr period*. The flaring probabilities are calculated using historical data from the periods 1969-1976 & 1988-1996 (MCSTAT) and 1988-2008 (MCEVOL).

MCSTAT – Uses point-in-time McIntosh classifications to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method [1] and forecast verification testing [2] can be found in the following papers:

[1] Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002)
[2] Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41

MCEVOL – Uses the evolution of McIntosh classifications over a 24-hr period to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method and flaring rate statistics can be found in the following:

[1] McCloskey, A.E., Gallagher, P.T. & Bloomfield, D.S., Solar Physics, 291, 1711, (2016)

Further Reading:
Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87
Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951


Notes:

'...' = McIntosh class or evolution was not observed in the period over which the Poisson flare rate statistics were determined.
* When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.


Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any queries regarding this research.



Today's/Yesterday's NOAA Active Regions
NOAA Number
Latest
Position
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot Area
[millionths]
Number of Spots
Recent
Flares
13549 S17W81
(921",-270")
α/α Hsx/Hsx 0160/0170 01/01 -
13553 N05W63
(866",125")
α/α Axx/Hrx 0010/0020 01/01 -
13555 S12W38
(588",-132")
α/β Hsx/Cso 0080/0110 02/05 -
13556 N17W28
(439",361")
α/α Hax/Hax 0040/0070 02/01 -
13559 N27W01
(15",522")
βγ/βγ Fkc/Fkc 0360/0300 32/28 C7.3(17:32)
C7.6(16:14)
C2.6(11:52)
C3.7(11:00) / -
13560 S11W04
(67",-97")
β/β Cao/Cri 0040/0060 04/10 -
13561 S15W40
(607",-184")
β/β Dai/Dri 0090/0090 14/08 -
13562 S09W54
(780",-99")
β/β Dao/Dao 0090/0110 03/05 -
13551 N26W90
(875",425")
/ / / / -
13554 N07W58
(822",166")
/ / / / -
13557 S13W22
(357",-137")
/ / / / -

Class (HH:MM) -Today
Class (HH:MM) -Yesterday

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: C7.0(06:31) C9.6(06:45) C6.2(09:17) C3.8(09:59) C9.5(14:27) C9.1(19:20) M2.4(07:52) M2.4(08:18) M1.0(12:40) M1.0(13:03) M1.3(14:45) M4.3(16:36) M1.0(18:19) M1.1(18:35) M1.0(19:46) M1.0(19:57)

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 23-Jan-2024 00:30 UT . The greyed out and light-blue entries are values from the previous day. Slashed cells indicate that the active region has no spots. The latest positions of the active regions are given in both heliographic and heliocentric co-ordinates. The region positions are valid on 23-Jan-2024 20:30 UT .