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10 January 2024
20240109 Week Rotation Today Rotation Week 20240111

NOAA Number McIntosh Class C-class M-class X-class

13536
13537
13538
13539
13540
13541
13542
13543
13544
13545
13546

Eao/Eai
Hax/Hax
Cai/Cai
Dai/Cao
Cao/Dki
Dai/Dai
Axx/Hax
Dso/Dai
Hsx/Hax
Hax/---
Cao/---
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
38 44 40
7 8 10
22 40 50
78 66 45
0 22 20
49 66 45
7 3 5
23 30 20
7 5 10
... 8 10
... 22 20
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
11 13 10
0 3 1
0 12 5
11 16 10
49 3 1
10 16 10
0 1 1
5 7 5
1 3 1
... 3 1
... 3 1
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
0 1 1
0 0 1
0 0 1
0 2 1
0 0 1
0 2 1
0 0 1
0 1 1
0 0 1
... 0 1
... 0 1

Solar Monitor's flare prediction system's probabilities are calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data. There are two main methods, MCSTAT and MCEVOL, that use sunspot-group McIntosh classifications and Poisson statistics to calculate flaring probabilities valid for a 24-hr period*. The flaring probabilities are calculated using historical data from the periods 1969-1976 & 1988-1996 (MCSTAT) and 1988-2008 (MCEVOL).

MCSTAT – Uses point-in-time McIntosh classifications to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method [1] and forecast verification testing [2] can be found in the following papers:

[1] Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002)
[2] Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41

MCEVOL – Uses the evolution of McIntosh classifications over a 24-hr period to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method and flaring rate statistics can be found in the following:

[1] McCloskey, A.E., Gallagher, P.T. & Bloomfield, D.S., Solar Physics, 291, 1711, (2016)

Further Reading:
Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87
Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951


Notes:

'...' = McIntosh class or evolution was not observed in the period over which the Poisson flare rate statistics were determined.
* When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.


Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any queries regarding this research.



Today's/Yesterday's NOAA Active Regions
NOAA Number
Latest
Position
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot Area
[millionths]
Number of Spots
Recent
Flares
13536 N06W54
(786",142")
βγ/βγ Eao/Eai 0170/0120 13/13 -
13537 N18W59
(796",335")
α/α Hax/Hax 0030/0030 01/01 -
13538 N20W79
(900",345")
β/β Cai/Cai 0080/0040 10/11 -
13539 N10W39
(606",222")
β/β Dai/Cao 0060/0040 08/05 -
13540 S18E06
(-97",-236")
β/βγ Cao/Dki 0240/0290 14/15 -
13541 S21E05
(-79",-285")
β/β Dai/Dai 0080/0050 05/03 -
13542 N18W55
(761",338")
α/α Axx/Hax 0010/0020 01/01 -
13543 S06W60
(841",-67")
β/β Dso/Dai 0110/0080 08/12 -
13544 N18E20
(-318",363")
α/α Hsx/Hax 0020/0030 01/01 -
13545 S06E55
(-796",-62")
α/- Hax/--- 0190/---- 01/-- -
13546 S24E38
(-550",-347")
β/- Cao/--- 0070/---- 11/-- -

Class (HH:MM) -Today
Class (HH:MM) -Yesterday

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: C3.3(02:02) C3.2(02:40) C5.4(03:07) C9.6(03:18) C5.7(03:58) C7.0(04:29) C7.0(05:33) C6.6(06:48) C3.6(08:56) C3.5(09:26) C3.4(09:43) C5.2(09:59) C3.1(10:46) C2.5(11:44) C4.6(14:12) C4.1(15:10) C6.5(18:56) C3.0(19:53) M1.4(12:39) C2.4(23:51)

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 10-Jan-2024 00:30 UT . The greyed out and light-blue entries are values from the previous day. Slashed cells indicate that the active region has no spots. The latest positions of the active regions are given in both heliographic and heliocentric co-ordinates. The region positions are valid on 10-Jan-2024 20:30 UT .