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27 December 2023
20231226 Week Rotation Today Rotation Week 20231228

NOAA Number McIntosh Class C-class M-class X-class

13521
13526
13528
13529
13530
13531
13533

Hsx/Hax
Bxo/Bxo
Hsx/Dao
Eho/Eho
Dao/Cai
Cso/Hax
Bxo/Bxo
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
7 5 5
8 6 5
2 5 1
76 52 45
13 36 20
14 17 15
8 6 5
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
1 3 1
1 1 1
0 3 1
0 14 5
0 7 5
4 3 1
1 1 1
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
0 0 1
0 0 1
0 0 1
0 0 1
0 0 1
0 0 1
0 0 1

Solar Monitor's flare prediction system's probabilities are calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data. There are two main methods, MCSTAT and MCEVOL, that use sunspot-group McIntosh classifications and Poisson statistics to calculate flaring probabilities valid for a 24-hr period*. The flaring probabilities are calculated using historical data from the periods 1969-1976 & 1988-1996 (MCSTAT) and 1988-2008 (MCEVOL).

MCSTAT – Uses point-in-time McIntosh classifications to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method [1] and forecast verification testing [2] can be found in the following papers:

[1] Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002)
[2] Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41

MCEVOL – Uses the evolution of McIntosh classifications over a 24-hr period to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method and flaring rate statistics can be found in the following:

[1] McCloskey, A.E., Gallagher, P.T. & Bloomfield, D.S., Solar Physics, 291, 1711, (2016)

Further Reading:
Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87
Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951


Notes:

'...' = McIntosh class or evolution was not observed in the period over which the Poisson flare rate statistics were determined.
* When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.


Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any queries regarding this research.



Today's/Yesterday's NOAA Active Regions
NOAA Number
Latest
Position
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot Area
[millionths]
Number of Spots
Recent
Flares
13521 N11W89
(957",186")
α/α Hsx/Hax 0030/0030 01/01 -
13526 N13W62
(840",238")
β/β Bxo/Bxo 0010/0010 02/02 -
13528 N09W91
(962",151")
α/β Hsx/Dao 0030/0130 01/03 -
13529 S21W64
(819",-332")
β/β Eho/Eho 0300/0320 06/04 -
13530 N08W46
(696",164")
β/β Dao/Cai 0060/0040 03/09 -
13531 S19W22
(346",-281")
β/α Cso/Hax 0200/0160 07/03 -
13533 N15W21
(338",290")
β/β Bxo/Bxo 0010/0010 04/06 -
13523 N25W86
(881",414")
/ / / / -
13524 N25W79
(868",419")
/ / / / -

Class (HH:MM) -Today
Class (HH:MM) -Yesterday

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: C1.7(03:09) C1.3(05:55) C1.2(13:09) C1.9(19:35) C1.5(01:14) C2.4(03:08) C1.6(04:15) C4.5(04:56) C1.9(05:23) C1.8(05:25) C3.3(08:56) C2.3(10:47) C1.5(16:53) C1.3(21:40)

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 27-Dec-2023 00:30 UT . The greyed out and light-blue entries are values from the previous day. Slashed cells indicate that the active region has no spots. The latest positions of the active regions are given in both heliographic and heliocentric co-ordinates. The region positions are valid on 27-Dec-2023 20:30 UT .