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4 December 2023
20231203 Week Rotation Today Rotation Week 20231205

NOAA Number McIntosh Class C-class M-class X-class

13500
13501
13505
13507
13508
13509
13510
13511

Dkc/Ekc
Hsx/Hsx
Cso/Hsx
Hsx/Hsx
Hsx/Hsx
Cro/Cso
Cri/---
Bxo/---
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
80 80 75
3 5 5
10 17 10
3 5 10
3 5 5
12 13 20
... 28 35
... 6 15
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
30 49 25
0 3 1
0 3 1
0 3 1
0 3 1
1 2 1
... 4 5
... 1 1
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
6 9 5
0 0 1
0 0 1
0 0 1
0 0 1
0 0 1
... 0 1
... 0 1

Solar Monitor's flare prediction system's probabilities are calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data. There are two main methods, MCSTAT and MCEVOL, that use sunspot-group McIntosh classifications and Poisson statistics to calculate flaring probabilities valid for a 24-hr period*. The flaring probabilities are calculated using historical data from the periods 1969-1976 & 1988-1996 (MCSTAT) and 1988-2008 (MCEVOL).

MCSTAT – Uses point-in-time McIntosh classifications to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method [1] and forecast verification testing [2] can be found in the following papers:

[1] Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002)
[2] Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41

MCEVOL – Uses the evolution of McIntosh classifications over a 24-hr period to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method and flaring rate statistics can be found in the following:

[1] McCloskey, A.E., Gallagher, P.T. & Bloomfield, D.S., Solar Physics, 291, 1711, (2016)

Further Reading:
Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87
Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951


Notes:

'...' = McIntosh class or evolution was not observed in the period over which the Poisson flare rate statistics were determined.
* When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.


Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any queries regarding this research.



Today's/Yesterday's NOAA Active Regions
NOAA Number
Latest
Position
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot Area
[millionths]
Number of Spots
Recent
Flares
13500 S18W83
(918",-301")
βγ/βγ Dkc/Ekc 0250/0270 09/12 -
13501 S08W74
(927",-137")
α/α Hsx/Hsx 0020/0030 01/01 -
13505 S17W09
(146",-293")
β/α Cso/Hsx 0020/0020 03/01 C8.1(01:22)
C1.5(00:55)
/ C1.6(15:17)
13507 N08E02
(-33",128")
α/α Hsx/Hsx 0130/0130 02/01 -
13508 S15W00
(0",-260")
α/α Hsx/Hsx 0060/0060 01/01 -
13509 N11W91
(954",185")
β/β Cro/Cso 0030/0050 02/05 -
13510 S15E10
(-163",-260")
β/- Cri/--- 0030/---- 06/-- -
13511 S23E11
(-171",-388")
β/- Bxo/--- 0010/---- 03/-- -
13503 N19W60
(798",313")
/ / / / -
13506 N15W91
(939",251")
/ / / / -

Class (HH:MM) -Today
Class (HH:MM) -Yesterday

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: C2.9(02:43) C1.2(04:09) C1.3(09:11) C1.3(15:04) C1.3(16:26) C1.7(05:07) C1.6(07:28) C4.0(07:54) C2.9(14:18) C1.4(16:38) C1.2(17:25) C1.3(19:48) C1.0(19:56) C1.4(20:53) C2.8(22:27) C1.1(23:03)

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 4-Dec-2023 00:30 UT . The greyed out and light-blue entries are values from the previous day. Slashed cells indicate that the active region has no spots. The latest positions of the active regions are given in both heliographic and heliocentric co-ordinates. The region positions are valid on 4-Dec-2023 20:30 UT .