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7 October 2023
20231006 Week Rotation Today Rotation Week 20231008

NOAA Number McIntosh Class C-class M-class X-class

13448
13450
13451
13452
13454
13457
13458
13459

Hsx/Hsx
Axx/Eao
Dai/Dai
Esi/Eai
Axx/Bxo
Bxo/Bxo
Hrx/Hrx
Axx/Bxo
Cro/Axx
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
3 5 5
0 3 5
49 66 55
32 84 55
8 6 20
4 6 5
3 3 5
10 13 15
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
0 3 1
0 1 1
10 16 15
0 21 15
1 1 1
0 1 1
0 1 1
1 2 1
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
0 0 1
0 0 1
0 2 1
0 2 1
0 0 1
0 0 1
0 0 1
0 0 1

Solar Monitor's flare prediction system's probabilities are calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data. There are two main methods, MCSTAT and MCEVOL, that use sunspot-group McIntosh classifications and Poisson statistics to calculate flaring probabilities valid for a 24-hr period*. The flaring probabilities are calculated using historical data from the periods 1969-1976 & 1988-1996 (MCSTAT) and 1988-2008 (MCEVOL).

MCSTAT – Uses point-in-time McIntosh classifications to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method [1] and forecast verification testing [2] can be found in the following papers:

[1] Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002)
[2] Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41

MCEVOL – Uses the evolution of McIntosh classifications over a 24-hr period to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method and flaring rate statistics can be found in the following:

[1] McCloskey, A.E., Gallagher, P.T. & Bloomfield, D.S., Solar Physics, 291, 1711, (2016)

Further Reading:
Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87
Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951


Notes:

'...' = McIntosh class or evolution was not observed in the period over which the Poisson flare rate statistics were determined.
* When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.


Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any queries regarding this research.



Today's/Yesterday's NOAA Active Regions
NOAA Number
Latest
Position
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot Area
[millionths]
Number of Spots
Recent
Flares
13448 N13W88
(934",210")
α/α Hsx/Hsx 0030/0050 01/01 -
13450 S19W69
(848",-347")
α/β Axx/Eao 0010/0090 02/13 -
13451 N16W34
(517",178")
βγ/βγ Dai/Dai 0160/0140 17/18 -
13452 N10W38
(583",83")
βγ/βγ Esi/Eai 0180/0220 12/28 -
13453 N10W72
(900",133")
α/β Axx/Bxo 0010/0010 03/04 -
13454 S12W15
(243",-300")
β/β Bxo/Bxo 0020/0010 06/04 C1.3(02:08)
/ C1.5(17:06)
13457 S12E24
(-383",-294")
α/α Hrx/Hrx 0020/0030 01/01 -
13458 N15W25
(393",154")
α/β Axx/Bxo 0010/0010 01/07 - / C1.4(15:36)
13459 N08E46
(-685",59")
β/α Cro/Axx 0020/0010 05/02 -
13455 N25W09
(136",308")
/ / / / -
13456 S31W61
(720",-536")
/α /Axx /0010 /01 -

Class (HH:MM) -Today
Class (HH:MM) -Yesterday

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: C1.5(04:26) C1.4(04:49) C1.7(05:14) C1.7(05:15) C3.5(07:58) C1.1(11:00) C1.2(12:13) C1.6(13:14) C2.8(13:45) C1.8(14:37) C3.4(18:26) C1.7(20:38) C1.8(20:51) C1.7(22:14) M1.8(17:57) C4.0(17:43) C4.2(18:08)

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 7-Oct-2023 00:30 UT . The greyed out and light-blue entries are values from the previous day. Slashed cells indicate that the active region has no spots. The latest positions of the active regions are given in both heliographic and heliocentric co-ordinates. The region positions are valid on 7-Oct-2023 23:30 UT .