show styles

1 October 2023
20230930 Week Rotation Today Rotation Week 20231002

NOAA Number McIntosh Class C-class M-class X-class

13440
13447
13448
13449
13450
13451

Axx/Axx
Hsx/Cao
Cso/Cao
Hsx/Hsx
Csi/Csi
Eai/Eai
Dai/---
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
2 3 0
12 17 10
3 5 10
... 44 20
62 71 75
... 66 65
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
0 1 0
1 3 1
0 3 1
... 8 1
19 29 20
... 16 15
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
0 0 0
0 0 1
0 0 1
... 1 1
0 1 5
... 2 1

Solar Monitor's flare prediction system's probabilities are calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data. There are two main methods, MCSTAT and MCEVOL, that use sunspot-group McIntosh classifications and Poisson statistics to calculate flaring probabilities valid for a 24-hr period*. The flaring probabilities are calculated using historical data from the periods 1969-1976 & 1988-1996 (MCSTAT) and 1988-2008 (MCEVOL).

MCSTAT – Uses point-in-time McIntosh classifications to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method [1] and forecast verification testing [2] can be found in the following papers:

[1] Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002)
[2] Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41

MCEVOL – Uses the evolution of McIntosh classifications over a 24-hr period to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method and flaring rate statistics can be found in the following:

[1] McCloskey, A.E., Gallagher, P.T. & Bloomfield, D.S., Solar Physics, 291, 1711, (2016)

Further Reading:
Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87
Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951


Notes:

'...' = McIntosh class or evolution was not observed in the period over which the Poisson flare rate statistics were determined.
* When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.


Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any queries regarding this research.



Today's/Yesterday's NOAA Active Regions
NOAA Number
Latest
Position
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot Area
[millionths]
Number of Spots
Recent
Flares
13440 N18W91
(910",295")
α/α Axx/Axx 0010/0010 01/01 -
13445 S14W91
(929",-228")
α/β Hsx/Cao 0050/0060 01/03 -
13447 S22W71
(840",-390")
β/β Cso/Cao 0080/0090 03/03 -
13448 N13W08
(130",106")
α/α Hsx/Hsx 0080/0100 01/01 -
13449 N15W23
(363",147")
β/β Csi/Csi 0110/0120 10/10 -
13450 S19E17
(-265",-412")
βγ/βγ Eai/Eai 0170/0140 12/13 -
13451 N14E46
(-670",155")
βδ/- Dai/--- 0080/---- 08/-- -
13442 S09W91
(945",-146")
/ / / / -
13444 N22W91
(888",358")
/ / / / -
13446 N23W64
(794",327")
/ / / / -

Class (HH:MM) -Today
Class (HH:MM) -Yesterday

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: C3.1(00:40) C3.0(01:02) C4.2(02:50) C9.3(03:21) C3.6(03:53) C4.0(04:00) C3.6(05:08) C3.6(05:10) C2.3(05:31) C2.6(09:08) C5.0(09:39) C3.6(11:06) C2.9(14:10) C3.4(14:41) C2.3(19:11) C2.1(20:08) C1.9(21:07) C2.5(22:30) C4.5(23:00) M2.5(01:10)

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 1-Oct-2023 00:30 UT . The greyed out and light-blue entries are values from the previous day. Slashed cells indicate that the active region has no spots. The latest positions of the active regions are given in both heliographic and heliocentric co-ordinates. The region positions are valid on 1-Oct-2023 23:30 UT .