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8 August 2023
20230807 Week Rotation Today Rotation Week 20230809

NOAA Number McIntosh Class C-class M-class X-class

13387
13391
13392
13394
13395
13396
13397
13398
13389

Dsi/Dsi
Hsx/Hsx
Cao/Cao
Cso/Cso
Cao/Cso
Bxo/---
Hsx/---
Cso/---
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
50 58 65
3 5 10
17 22 20
14 17 15
11 22 20
... 6 5
... 5 5
... 17 20
... ... 5
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
7 12 40
0 3 1
2 3 5
1 3 1
3 3 5
... 1 1
... 3 1
... 3 1
... ... 1
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
0 0 10
0 0 1
0 0 1
0 0 1
0 0 1
... 0 1
... 0 1
... 0 1
... ... 1

Solar Monitor's flare prediction system's probabilities are calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data. There are two main methods, MCSTAT and MCEVOL, that use sunspot-group McIntosh classifications and Poisson statistics to calculate flaring probabilities valid for a 24-hr period*. The flaring probabilities are calculated using historical data from the periods 1969-1976 & 1988-1996 (MCSTAT) and 1988-2008 (MCEVOL).

MCSTAT – Uses point-in-time McIntosh classifications to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method [1] and forecast verification testing [2] can be found in the following papers:

[1] Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002)
[2] Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41

MCEVOL – Uses the evolution of McIntosh classifications over a 24-hr period to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method and flaring rate statistics can be found in the following:

[1] McCloskey, A.E., Gallagher, P.T. & Bloomfield, D.S., Solar Physics, 291, 1711, (2016)

Further Reading:
Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87
Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951


Notes:

'...' = McIntosh class or evolution was not observed in the period over which the Poisson flare rate statistics were determined.
* When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.


Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any queries regarding this research.



Today's/Yesterday's NOAA Active Regions
NOAA Number
Latest
Position
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot Area
[millionths]
Number of Spots
Recent
Flares
13387 N18W87
(898",285")
β/β Dsi/Dsi 0080/0140 03/08 -
13391 N23W53
(697",310")
α/α Hsx/Hsx 0050/0080 01/01 -
13392 N08W61
(820",81")
β/β Cao/Cao 0050/0130 04/06 -
13394 S23W03
(45",-464")
β/β Cso/Cso 0140/0160 03/04 -
13395 N14E11
(-175",129")
β/β Cao/Cso 0050/0090 03/04 -
13396 N19W08
(125",210")
β/- Bxo/--- 0020/---- 02/-- C1.5(16:56) / -
13397 N18E33
(-491",208")
α/- Hsx/--- 0020/---- 01/-- -
13398 S20W64
(800",-364")
β/- Cso/--- 0020/---- 04/-- -
13388 S23W91
(870",-365")
/α /Axx /0010 /01 -
13389 S16W75
(879",-285")
/ / / / -
13390 S20W78
(869",-341")
/ / / / -
13393 N17W86
(902",268")
/ / / / -

Class (HH:MM) -Today
Class (HH:MM) -Yesterday

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: C4.9(00:52) C3.9(01:33) C5.4(02:10) C1.5(14:03) C1.5(16:45) C8.8(17:49) C1.7(19:52) C1.7(21:13) C4.4(22:39) M3.6(09:20) C3.8(14:01) C4.4(14:33) C4.3(15:09) C8.2(23:50) M1.0(15:25) M1.0(15:30) M1.0(16:24) M1.4(19:37) X1.5(20:30)

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 8-Aug-2023 00:30 UT . The greyed out and light-blue entries are values from the previous day. Slashed cells indicate that the active region has no spots. The latest positions of the active regions are given in both heliographic and heliocentric co-ordinates. The region positions are valid on 8-Aug-2023 23:30 UT .