show styles

30 July 2023
20230729 Week Rotation Today Rotation Week 20230731

NOAA Number McIntosh Class C-class M-class X-class

13377
13379
13380
13385
13386
13387
13388
13389
13390
13391

Dso/Dso
Hsx/Hsx
Dai/Cai
Axx/Hrx
Dki/Dki
Cao/Cao
Cso/Cso
Hsx/Hsx
Cro/Hrx
Hsx/---
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
21 30 0
3 5 10
39 66 75
1 3 5
66 73 65
17 22 20
14 17 10
3 5 25
8 13 55
... 5 10
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
1 7 0
0 3 1
0 16 35
0 1 1
26 30 25
2 3 1
1 3 1
0 3 5
0 2 25
... 3 1
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
0 1 0
0 0 1
0 2 5
0 0 1
3 4 1
0 0 1
0 0 1
0 0 1
0 0 1
... 0 1

Solar Monitor's flare prediction system's probabilities are calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data. There are two main methods, MCSTAT and MCEVOL, that use sunspot-group McIntosh classifications and Poisson statistics to calculate flaring probabilities valid for a 24-hr period*. The flaring probabilities are calculated using historical data from the periods 1969-1976 & 1988-1996 (MCSTAT) and 1988-2008 (MCEVOL).

MCSTAT – Uses point-in-time McIntosh classifications to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method [1] and forecast verification testing [2] can be found in the following papers:

[1] Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002)
[2] Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41

MCEVOL – Uses the evolution of McIntosh classifications over a 24-hr period to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method and flaring rate statistics can be found in the following:

[1] McCloskey, A.E., Gallagher, P.T. & Bloomfield, D.S., Solar Physics, 291, 1711, (2016)

Further Reading:
Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87
Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951


Notes:

'...' = McIntosh class or evolution was not observed in the period over which the Poisson flare rate statistics were determined.
* When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.


Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any queries regarding this research.



Today's/Yesterday's NOAA Active Regions
NOAA Number
Latest
Position
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot Area
[millionths]
Number of Spots
Recent
Flares
13377 S08W91
(935",-129")
β/β Dso/Dso 0140/0200 02/02 -
13379 N14W77
(894",207")
α/α Hsx/Hsx 0180/0180 01/01 -
13380 S10W26
(409",-246")
β/β Dai/Cai 0230/0200 16/14 - / C5.5(13:10)
13385 S15W78
(893",-262")
α/α Axx/Hrx 0010/0020 01/01 -
13386 N12E06
(-97",105")
β/β Dki/Dki 0300/0360 12/18 -
13387 N20E28
(-418",245")
β/β Cao/Cao 0120/0120 05/04 -
13388 S23E22
(-326",-448")
β/β Cso/Cso 0060/0060 05/03 -
13389 S09E33
(-510",-225")
α/α Hsx/Hsx 0040/0040 01/01 -
13390 S19E44
(-622",-370")
β/α Cro/Hrx 0030/0020 03/01 -
13391 N25E61
(-750",357")
α/- Hsx/--- 0030/---- 01/-- -
13382 N19W74
(859",282")
/ / / / -
13383 N15W64
(821",204")
/ / / / -
13384 S16W11
(173",-348")
/α /Axx /0010 /03 C4.0(13:07) / -

Class (HH:MM) -Today
Class (HH:MM) -Yesterday

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: C2.0(00:56) C2.3(02:48) C5.6(04:32) C6.4(04:53) C1.7(22:17) M1.8(08:01) M1.9(08:18) C2.7(01:47) C3.0(02:24) C2.2(05:56) C6.7(06:55) C9.2(10:18) C2.8(20:02) C4.9(23:23) M1.4(16:11)

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 30-Jul-2023 00:30 UT . The greyed out and light-blue entries are values from the previous day. Slashed cells indicate that the active region has no spots. The latest positions of the active regions are given in both heliographic and heliocentric co-ordinates. The region positions are valid on 30-Jul-2023 23:30 UT .