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13 July 2023
20230712 Week Rotation Today Rotation Week 20230714

NOAA Number McIntosh Class C-class M-class X-class

13360
13361
13362
13363
13364
13367
13370
13371
13372

Axx/Bxo
Dsi/Dhi
Hrx/Hsx
Dko/Cko
Bxo/Axx
Hsx/Cso
Dai/Dsi
Dai/Dao
Axx/Cso
Dro/Dao
Hax/Hax
Eki/Hkx
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
3 3 0
... 58 20
5 6 5
46 56 35
9 6 5
56 66 50
20 17 10
7 8 5
... 81 85
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
0 1 0
... 12 5
0 1 1
19 23 10
0 1 1
12 16 20
0 6 1
0 3 1
... 42 30
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
0 0 0
... 0 1
0 0 1
4 3 5
0 0 1
0 2 1
0 0 1
0 0 1
... 7 5

Solar Monitor's flare prediction system's probabilities are calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data. There are two main methods, MCSTAT and MCEVOL, that use sunspot-group McIntosh classifications and Poisson statistics to calculate flaring probabilities valid for a 24-hr period*. The flaring probabilities are calculated using historical data from the periods 1969-1976 & 1988-1996 (MCSTAT) and 1988-2008 (MCEVOL).

MCSTAT – Uses point-in-time McIntosh classifications to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method [1] and forecast verification testing [2] can be found in the following papers:

[1] Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002)
[2] Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41

MCEVOL – Uses the evolution of McIntosh classifications over a 24-hr period to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method and flaring rate statistics can be found in the following:

[1] McCloskey, A.E., Gallagher, P.T. & Bloomfield, D.S., Solar Physics, 291, 1711, (2016)

Further Reading:
Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87
Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951


Notes:

'...' = McIntosh class or evolution was not observed in the period over which the Poisson flare rate statistics were determined.
* When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.


Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any queries regarding this research.



Today's/Yesterday's NOAA Active Regions
NOAA Number
Latest
Position
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot Area
[millionths]
Number of Spots
Recent
Flares
13360 N23W91
(868",368")
α/β Axx/Bxo 0000/0010 01/05 -
13361 N25W79
(840",386")
βγ/βγ Dsi/Dhi 0220/0250 13/20 -
13362 S08W48
(696",-176")
α/α Hrx/Hsx 0020/0030 01/01 -
13363 S21W23
(345",-397")
βδ/β Dko/Cko 0850/0780 24/21 -
13364 N25W40
(551",351")
β/α Bxo/Axx 0010/0010 05/01 -
13366 S11W91
(925",-178")
α/β Hsx/Cso 0090/0120 01/07 -
13367 N10W55
(763",124")
β/βγ Dai/Dsi 0160/0160 18/22 -
13368 S17W91
(901",-273")
β/β Dai/Dao 0080/0100 11/14 -
13369 S18W79
(881",-303")
α/β Axx/Cso 0000/0060 02/04 -
13370 S15E19
(-297",-307")
β/β Dro/Dao 0030/0050 08/08 -
13371 S15E34
(-511",-299")
α/α Hax/Hax 0030/0020 02/01 -
13372 N24E51
(-671",344")
β/α Eki/Hkx 0650/0270 13/03 -

Class (HH:MM) -Today
Class (HH:MM) -Yesterday

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: C7.6(00:32) C8.1(00:52) C4.8(02:04) C5.5(02:19) C5.2(02:43) C5.0(03:19) C9.4(05:05) C4.9(08:02) C5.1(09:35) C4.7(11:13) C9.7(12:22) C4.7(16:48) C5.7(18:28) C3.6(22:22) C6.9(22:38) M2.1(18:55) C5.0(19:34) C3.6(22:23) C5.5(22:39) C7.0(22:52)

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 13-Jul-2023 00:30 UT . The greyed out and light-blue entries are values from the previous day. Slashed cells indicate that the active region has no spots. The latest positions of the active regions are given in both heliographic and heliocentric co-ordinates. The region positions are valid on 13-Jul-2023 23:30 UT .