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28 June 2023
20230627 Week Rotation Today Rotation Week 20230629

NOAA Number McIntosh Class C-class M-class X-class

13337
13339
13340
13341
13345
13348
13351
13354
13355

Axx/Hrx
Cso/Cso
Eki/Eki
Cao/Cao
Hrx/Hrx
Bxo/Bxo
Bxo/Cro
Dki/Cso
Hax/---
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
1 3 0
14 17 10
75 81 55
17 22 10
4 6 5
8 6 5
8 6 5
90 73 80
... 8 5
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
0 1 0
1 3 1
23 42 10
2 3 1
0 1 1
1 1 1
1 1 1
28 30 30
... 3 1
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
0 0 0
0 0 1
3 7 1
0 0 1
0 0 1
0 0 1
0 0 1
0 4 5
... 0 1

Solar Monitor's flare prediction system's probabilities are calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data. There are two main methods, MCSTAT and MCEVOL, that use sunspot-group McIntosh classifications and Poisson statistics to calculate flaring probabilities valid for a 24-hr period*. The flaring probabilities are calculated using historical data from the periods 1969-1976 & 1988-1996 (MCSTAT) and 1988-2008 (MCEVOL).

MCSTAT – Uses point-in-time McIntosh classifications to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method [1] and forecast verification testing [2] can be found in the following papers:

[1] Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002)
[2] Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41

MCEVOL – Uses the evolution of McIntosh classifications over a 24-hr period to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method and flaring rate statistics can be found in the following:

[1] McCloskey, A.E., Gallagher, P.T. & Bloomfield, D.S., Solar Physics, 291, 1711, (2016)

Further Reading:
Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87
Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951


Notes:

'...' = McIntosh class or evolution was not observed in the period over which the Poisson flare rate statistics were determined.
* When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.


Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any queries regarding this research.



Today's/Yesterday's NOAA Active Regions
NOAA Number
Latest
Position
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot Area
[millionths]
Number of Spots
Recent
Flares
13337 N15W91
(911",244")
α/α Axx/Hrx 0010/0010 01/01 -
13339 S20W79
(870",-330")
β/β Cso/Cso 0060/0150 03/10 -
13340 N23W72
(826",356")
βγ/βγ Eki/Eki 0260/0350 17/22 -
13341 S15W47
(668",-272")
β/β Cao/Cao 0050/0120 02/09 -
13345 N09W51
(726",121")
α/α Hrx/Hrx 0010/0010 01/01 -
13348 S33W19
(258",-548")
β/β Bxo/Bxo 0010/0010 05/02 -
13351 N20W09
(139",284")
β/β Bxo/Cro 0010/0030 02/05 C1.6(19:44)
C1.8(16:41)
M1.9(08:26) / -
13354 N15W03
(47",203")
βγ/β Dki/Cso 0450/0020 19/05 -
13355 S16E42
(-608",-291")
α/- Hax/--- 0040/---- 01/-- -
13346 N08W75
(903",120")
/ / / / -
13347 S19W91
(891",-306")
/α /Axx /0010 /01 -
13349 N08W31
(483",95")
/ / / / -
13350 S11W31
(478",-216")
/ / / / -
13353 S18W68
(833",-306")
/ / / / -

Class (HH:MM) -Today
Class (HH:MM) -Yesterday

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: C1.4(00:29) C3.3(02:14) C1.3(03:28) C1.6(04:02) C2.5(09:51) C1.8(12:56) C2.4(13:29) C5.5(18:33) C5.0(18:54) C1.7(21:08) C1.8(21:31) C1.4(21:53) C1.6(23:02) C1.9(21:11) C2.0(21:28) C4.4(22:22) C1.7(23:17)

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 28-Jun-2023 00:30 UT . The greyed out and light-blue entries are values from the previous day. Slashed cells indicate that the active region has no spots. The latest positions of the active regions are given in both heliographic and heliocentric co-ordinates. The region positions are valid on 28-Jun-2023 23:30 UT .