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2 June 2023
20230601 Week Rotation Today Rotation Week 20230603

NOAA Number McIntosh Class C-class M-class X-class

13313
13315
13318
13319
13320
13321
13322
13323

Hsx/Hsx
Dhi/Dko
Axx/Axx
Axx/Cro
Hax/Dso
Eai/Dhi
Cso/Cso
Hax/Hhx
Cro/Bxo
Dac/Dao
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
3 5 0
39 72 35
5 8 5
... 71 55
14 17 10
13 8 10
13 13 5
86 47 50
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
0 3 0
0 7 5
0 3 1
... 29 10
1 3 1
7 3 1
1 2 1
25 24 10
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
0 0 0
0 0 1
0 0 1
... 1 5
0 0 1
0 0 1
0 0 1
0 2 5

Solar Monitor's flare prediction system's probabilities are calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data. There are two main methods, MCSTAT and MCEVOL, that use sunspot-group McIntosh classifications and Poisson statistics to calculate flaring probabilities valid for a 24-hr period*. The flaring probabilities are calculated using historical data from the periods 1969-1976 & 1988-1996 (MCSTAT) and 1988-2008 (MCEVOL).

MCSTAT – Uses point-in-time McIntosh classifications to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method [1] and forecast verification testing [2] can be found in the following papers:

[1] Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002)
[2] Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41

MCEVOL – Uses the evolution of McIntosh classifications over a 24-hr period to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method and flaring rate statistics can be found in the following:

[1] McCloskey, A.E., Gallagher, P.T. & Bloomfield, D.S., Solar Physics, 291, 1711, (2016)

Further Reading:
Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87
Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951


Notes:

'...' = McIntosh class or evolution was not observed in the period over which the Poisson flare rate statistics were determined.
* When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.


Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any queries regarding this research.



Today's/Yesterday's NOAA Active Regions
NOAA Number
Latest
Position
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot Area
[millionths]
Number of Spots
Recent
Flares
13313 N21W91
(882",338")
α/α Hsx/Hsx 0030/0030 01/01 -
13315 S17W88
(903",-276")
β/βδ Dhi/Dko 0350/0510 10/13 -
13316 N09W59
(802",152")
α/α Axx/Axx 0010/0010 01/01 -
13317 N27W91
(842",429")
α/β Axx/Cro 0010/0030 01/02 -
13318 N25W86
(855",400")
α/β Hax/Dso 0090/0120 02/02 -
13319 S19W55
(734",-304")
βγ/βγδ Eai/Dhi 0240/0300 13/19 -
13320 N10E17
(-273",172")
β/β Cso/Cso 0030/0120 02/02 -
13321 S15E27
(-416",-238")
α/α Hax/Hhx 0210/0260 02/03 -
13322 N17W80
(891",278")
β/β Cro/Bxo 0020/0010 03/01 -
13323 S08E43
(-640",-126")
βγ/β Dac/Dao 0170/0200 08/03 -

Class (HH:MM) -Today
Class (HH:MM) -Yesterday

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: C2.3(01:38) C2.6(06:06) C3.3(06:20) C2.2(08:00) C3.9(13:59) C3.3(15:14) C6.3(22:26) M1.5(02:32) C2.0(08:08) C3.7(09:09) C6.5(11:13) C3.4(12:21) C2.2(13:00) C3.0(13:26) C2.7(13:47) C4.3(14:39) C2.3(17:40) C4.5(18:48) C6.3(20:23) C3.6(21:52)

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 2-Jun-2023 00:30 UT . The greyed out and light-blue entries are values from the previous day. Slashed cells indicate that the active region has no spots. The latest positions of the active regions are given in both heliographic and heliocentric co-ordinates. The region positions are valid on 2-Jun-2023 23:30 UT .