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15 March 2023
20230314 Week Rotation Today Rotation Week 20230316

NOAA Number McIntosh Class C-class M-class X-class

13245
13247
13249
13250
13251
13252
13254
13255

Hsx/Hhx
Hax/Hax
Axx/Cro
Bxo/Dri
Hsx/Hsx
Hrx/Hrx
Cao/---
Bxo/---
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
0 5 5
7 8 10
2 3 5
0 6 5
3 5 5
4 6 5
... 22 20
... 6 5
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
0 3 1
0 3 1
0 1 1
0 1 1
0 3 1
0 1 1
... 3 1
... 1 1
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
0 0 1
0 0 1
0 0 1
0 0 1
0 0 1
0 0 1
... 0 1
... 0 1

Solar Monitor's flare prediction system's probabilities are calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data. There are two main methods, MCSTAT and MCEVOL, that use sunspot-group McIntosh classifications and Poisson statistics to calculate flaring probabilities valid for a 24-hr period*. The flaring probabilities are calculated using historical data from the periods 1969-1976 & 1988-1996 (MCSTAT) and 1988-2008 (MCEVOL).

MCSTAT – Uses point-in-time McIntosh classifications to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method [1] and forecast verification testing [2] can be found in the following papers:

[1] Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002)
[2] Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41

MCEVOL – Uses the evolution of McIntosh classifications over a 24-hr period to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method and flaring rate statistics can be found in the following:

[1] McCloskey, A.E., Gallagher, P.T. & Bloomfield, D.S., Solar Physics, 291, 1711, (2016)

Further Reading:
Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87
Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951


Notes:

'...' = McIntosh class or evolution was not observed in the period over which the Poisson flare rate statistics were determined.
* When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.


Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any queries regarding this research.



Today's/Yesterday's NOAA Active Regions
NOAA Number
Latest
Position
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot Area
[millionths]
Number of Spots
Recent
Flares
13245 S23W82
(879",-358")
α/α Hsx/Hhx 0090/0250 02/01 -
13247 S22W50
(686",-287")
α/α Hax/Hax 0020/0030 01/02 -
13249 S11W31
(489",-81")
α/β Axx/Cro 0010/0020 01/02 -
13250 S18W34
(514",-201")
β/β Bxo/Dri 0010/0030 05/09 -
13251 S13W10
(163",-100")
α/α Hsx/Hsx 0050/0050 01/01 -
13252 N13W06
(98",333")
α/α Hrx/Hrx 0010/0020 01/01 -
13254 S24W40
(568",-306")
β/- Cao/--- 0050/---- 05/-- -
13255 S05E27
(-437",23")
β/- Bxo/--- 0010/---- 01/-- -
13246 N24W66
(805",434")
/ / / / -
13253 S29W41
(555",-385")
/ / / / -

Class (HH:MM) -Today
Class (HH:MM) -Yesterday

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: C1.1(06:23) C3.0(05:52) C1.2(07:35) C1.3(08:02) C2.9(11:00) C1.2(22:16) C1.1(23:25)

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 15-Mar-2023 00:30 UT . The greyed out and light-blue entries are values from the previous day. Slashed cells indicate that the active region has no spots. The latest positions of the active regions are given in both heliographic and heliocentric co-ordinates. The region positions are valid on 15-Mar-2023 20:30 UT .