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12 September 2022
20220911 Week Rotation Today Rotation Week 20220913

NOAA Number McIntosh Class C-class M-class X-class

13092
13094
13096
13098
13099
13100
13101
13097

Hsx/Hsx
Axx/Axx
Cro/Dao
Eai/Cao
Bxo/Cro
Cai/Csi
Dai/Bxo
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
3 5 5
2 3 5
3 13 5
43 71 70
8 6 5
... 40 40
57 66 40
... ... 10
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
0 3 1
0 1 1
0 2 1
11 29 15
1 1 1
... 12 5
21 16 5
... ... 1
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
0 0 1
0 0 1
0 0 1
0 1 1
0 0 1
... 0 1
0 2 1
... ... 1

Solar Monitor's flare prediction system's probabilities are calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data. There are two main methods, MCSTAT and MCEVOL, that use sunspot-group McIntosh classifications and Poisson statistics to calculate flaring probabilities valid for a 24-hr period*. The flaring probabilities are calculated using historical data from the periods 1969-1976 & 1988-1996 (MCSTAT) and 1988-2008 (MCEVOL).

MCSTAT – Uses point-in-time McIntosh classifications to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method [1] and forecast verification testing [2] can be found in the following papers:

[1] Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002)
[2] Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41

MCEVOL – Uses the evolution of McIntosh classifications over a 24-hr period to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method and flaring rate statistics can be found in the following:

[1] McCloskey, A.E., Gallagher, P.T. & Bloomfield, D.S., Solar Physics, 291, 1711, (2016)

Further Reading:
Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87
Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951


Notes:

'...' = McIntosh class or evolution was not observed in the period over which the Poisson flare rate statistics were determined.
* When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.


Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any queries regarding this research.



Today's/Yesterday's NOAA Active Regions
NOAA Number
Latest
Position
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot Area
[millionths]
Number of Spots
Recent
Flares
13092 S09W82
(932",-164")
α/α Hsx/Hsx 0060/0060 02/01 -
13094 N20W55
(735",259")
α/α Axx/Axx 0010/0010 01/01 -
13096 N16W09
(143",147")
β/β Cro/Dao 0030/0100 05/07 -
13098 N18W36
(534",200")
βγ/β Eai/Cao 0160/0060 12/12 C5.2(18:54)
C2.8(00:22)
/ C2.5(23:05)
C6.1(22:08)
C3.0(19:24)
C4.7(18:22)
13099 N12E04
(-65",79")
β/β Bxo/Cro 0010/0020 02/02 -
13100 S25E23
(-338",-501")
β/β Cai/Csi 0080/0070 11/11 -
13101 N29W84
(829",447")
β/β Dai/Bxo 0060/0010 10/05 -
13093 S26W91
(856",-412")
/ / / / -
13097 S11W67
(862",-226")
/β /Bxo /0010 /03 -

Class (HH:MM) -Today
Class (HH:MM) -Yesterday

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: C3.2(03:12) C2.1(04:12) C3.0(06:00) C4.5(06:21) C2.3(08:28) C3.7(09:16) C3.6(09:55) C3.5(10:32) C3.5(11:17) C6.3(12:11) C7.4(12:55) C2.0(16:09) C3.6(19:52) C3.1(20:41)

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 12-Sep-2022 00:30 UT . The greyed out and light-blue entries are values from the previous day. Slashed cells indicate that the active region has no spots. The latest positions of the active regions are given in both heliographic and heliocentric co-ordinates. The region positions are valid on 12-Sep-2022 23:30 UT .