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 7 May 2002
⇐20020506 ⇐Week ⇐Rotation Today Rotation⇒ Week⇒ 20020508⇒

Welcome to the Flare Prediction System. This page lists the active regions present on the Sun today, together with their probability of producing C-, M-, or X-class events. Flare probabilities are calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data combined over 1969-1976 and 1988-1996 (details of which can be found in Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41, along with full forecast verification testing). The percentage probabilities are based on the number of flares produced by regions classified using the McIntosh classification scheme (McIntosh, P., 1990, Solar Physics, 125, 251) during cycles 21 and 22. For example, over both time periods there were 377 regions classified Eai. As this class produced 131 M-class events, the mean M-class flare rate is ~131/377 or ~0.347 flares per day. Assuming the number of flares per unit time is governed by Poisson statistics, we can estimate a flaring probability for the following 24-hours using P( one or more flares ) = 1 - exp( -mean ), i.e., P = 1 - exp( -0.347 ) ~ 0.29, or 29% for an Eai class region to produce one or more M-class flares in the next 24-hours.

See Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002),
Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87 and Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951 for further details.

Click here for a description of the various active region classifications from the Royal Observatory of Belgium.
Region Flare Probabilities (%)
Number McIntosh C-class M-class X-class
No Prediction Found

NOTE: Occurrence of '...' indicates that McIntosh class was not observed in the period over which the Poisson flare rate statistics were determined. Values in parantheses/brackets give the NOAA/SWPC forecast probabilities for the occurrence of one or more C-, M-, or X-class flares. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.

Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research.


Today's/Yesterday's NOAA Active Regions
NOAA Number
Latest
Position
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot Area
[millionths]
Number of Spots
Recent
Flares
09928 N18W32
(481",195") 		βγδ/βγδ Cso/Dao 0050/0090 08/15 -
09929 N23W80
(864",350") 		βγδ/βγδ Dao/Dao 0170/0210 05/13 -
09931 N15W65
(835",195") 		βγδ/βγδ Cso/Cao 0050/0070 03/10 -
09932 S28W22
(316",-543") 		βγδ/βγδ Eso/Eai 0070/0100 10/16 -
09933 N18W14
(220",181") 		αγδ/αγδ Hsx/Hsx 0100/0100 01/03 -
09934 S17W06
(95",-392") 		βγδ/βγδ Eki/Eki 0500/0540 23/36 -
09935 S19W37
(543",-399") 		αγδ/βγδ Axx/Bxo 0000/0020 01/07 -
09936 S16W27
(417",-364") 		βγδ/βγδ Cso/Cao 0020/0040 05/10 -
09937 S10E15
(-243",-279") 		βγδ/βγδ Dko/Dai 0180/0210 09/10 -
09938 S05E18
(-294",-196") 		αγδ/αγδ Hax/Hsx 0030/0030 01/01 -
09939 N17E26
(-400",173") 		αγδ/αγδ Hsx/Hsx 0040/0050 01/01 -
09940 N13E28
(-437",109") 		αγδ/αγδ Hax/Hsx 0040/0040 01/02 -
09941 S22W17
(259",-462") 		βγδ/βγδ Dso/Dao 0040/0050 06/10 -
09942 N21E07
(-108",228") 		αγδ/βγδ Axx/Cso 0010/0020 01/04 -
09943 S11E36
(-551",-276") 		αγδ/βγδ Hsx/Cao 0020/0050 01/04 -
09944 N08E21
(-339",20") 		βγδ/- Cro/--- 0040/---- 03/-- -
09945 S05E52
(-749",-156") 		αγδ/- Hkx/--- 0240/---- 01/-- -

Class (HH:MM) -Today
Class (HH:MM) -Yesterday

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: None

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 07-May-2002 00:30 . The greyed out and light-blue entries are values from the previous day. Slashed cells indicate that the active region has no spots. The latest positions of the active regions are given in both heliographic and heliocentric co-ordinates. The region positions are valid on 07-May-2002 23:30 .