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 6 February 2002
⇐20020205 ⇐Week ⇐Rotation Today Rotation⇒ Week⇒ 20020207⇒

Welcome to the Flare Prediction System. This page lists the active regions present on the Sun today, together with their probability of producing C-, M-, or X-class events. Flare probabilities are calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data combined over 1969-1976 and 1988-1996 (details of which can be found in Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41, along with full forecast verification testing). The percentage probabilities are based on the number of flares produced by regions classified using the McIntosh classification scheme (McIntosh, P., 1990, Solar Physics, 125, 251) during cycles 21 and 22. For example, over both time periods there were 377 regions classified Eai. As this class produced 131 M-class events, the mean M-class flare rate is ~131/377 or ~0.347 flares per day. Assuming the number of flares per unit time is governed by Poisson statistics, we can estimate a flaring probability for the following 24-hours using P( one or more flares ) = 1 - exp( -mean ), i.e., P = 1 - exp( -0.347 ) ~ 0.29, or 29% for an Eai class region to produce one or more M-class flares in the next 24-hours.

See Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002),
Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87 and Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951 for further details.

Click here for a description of the various active region classifications from the Royal Observatory of Belgium.
Region Flare Probabilities (%)
Number McIntosh C-class M-class X-class
No Prediction Found

NOTE: Occurrence of '...' indicates that McIntosh class was not observed in the period over which the Poisson flare rate statistics were determined. Values in parantheses/brackets give the NOAA/SWPC forecast probabilities for the occurrence of one or more C-, M-, or X-class flares. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.

Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research.


Today's/Yesterday's NOAA Active Regions
NOAA Number
Latest
Position
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot Area
[millionths]
Number of Spots
Recent
Flares
09800 N06W91
(947",100") 		βγδ/βγδ Dao/Dao 0140/0250 03/05 -
09801 S04W85
(946",-76") 		αγδ/αγδ Hsx/Hsx 0070/0080 01/01 -
09802 S15W70
(865",-284") 		βγδ/βγδ Eai/Fki 0500/0640 44/57 -
09806 N11W50
(718",104") 		αγδ/βγδ Hsx/Cso 0030/0030 01/03 -
09807 S25W13
(194",-507") 		βγδ/βγδ Eao/Eai 0120/0090 18/27 -
09808 N17W27
(415",174") 		βγδ/βγδ Dao/Dso 0060/0050 13/07 -
09809 S06W11
(181",-216") 		βγδ/βγδ Dso/Dso 0100/0100 07/06 -
09810 N10E12
(-195",48") 		βγδ/βγδ Dko/Dao 0190/0230 03/04 -
09811 S25E31
(-446",-494") 		βγδ/βγδ Dao/Dao 0240/0290 12/07 -
09812 N13W71
(878",174") 		βγδ/βγδ Cro/Dro 0020/0030 02/04 -
09814 N07W27
(430",8") 		αγδ/αγδ Axx/Hrx 0010/0010 02/01 -
09815 N12E29
(-453",94") 		βγδ/αγδ Cao/Hax 0070/0080 03/02 -
09816 S12W60
(808",-255") 		βγδ/βγδ Dso/Dao 0150/0080 11/09 -
09817 S07E09
(-148",-233") 		βγδ/βγδ Bxo/Bxo 0020/0020 03/03 -
09818 N06E40
(-611",7") 		αγδ/αγδ Axx/Axx 0020/0020 01/01 -
09819 S29E54
(-675",-520") 		αγδ/αγδ Hsx/Hsx 0050/0050 02/02 -

Class (HH:MM) -Today
Class (HH:MM) -Yesterday

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: None

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 06-Feb-2002 00:30 . The greyed out and light-blue entries are values from the previous day. Slashed cells indicate that the active region has no spots. The latest positions of the active regions are given in both heliographic and heliocentric co-ordinates. The region positions are valid on 06-Feb-2002 23:30 .