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 28 January 2002
⇐20020127 ⇐Week ⇐Rotation Today Rotation⇒ Week⇒ 20020129⇒

Welcome to the Flare Prediction System. This page lists the active regions present on the Sun today, together with their probability of producing C-, M-, or X-class events. Flare probabilities are calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data combined over 1969-1976 and 1988-1996 (details of which can be found in Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41, along with full forecast verification testing). The percentage probabilities are based on the number of flares produced by regions classified using the McIntosh classification scheme (McIntosh, P., 1990, Solar Physics, 125, 251) during cycles 21 and 22. For example, over both time periods there were 377 regions classified Eai. As this class produced 131 M-class events, the mean M-class flare rate is ~131/377 or ~0.347 flares per day. Assuming the number of flares per unit time is governed by Poisson statistics, we can estimate a flaring probability for the following 24-hours using P( one or more flares ) = 1 - exp( -mean ), i.e., P = 1 - exp( -0.347 ) ~ 0.29, or 29% for an Eai class region to produce one or more M-class flares in the next 24-hours.

See Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002),
Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87 and Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951 for further details.

Click here for a description of the various active region classifications from the Royal Observatory of Belgium.
Region Flare Probabilities (%)
Number McIntosh C-class M-class X-class
No Prediction Found

NOTE: Occurrence of '...' indicates that McIntosh class was not observed in the period over which the Poisson flare rate statistics were determined. Values in parantheses/brackets give the NOAA/SWPC forecast probabilities for the occurrence of one or more C-, M-, or X-class flares. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.

Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research.


Today's/Yesterday's NOAA Active Regions
NOAA Number
Latest
Position
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot Area
[millionths]
Number of Spots
Recent
Flares
09787 S08W62
(834",-187") 		β/β Cko/Dko 0450/0410 05/12 -
09788 N17W84
(906",264") 		β/β Dao/Dao 0120/0190 12/17 -
09793 S14W80
(910",-248") 		β/α Bxo/Hsx 0010/0020 03/01 -
09794 N13W44
(646",128") 		β/β Cso/Dso 0040/0050 05/05 -
09798 S02W27
(433",-140") 		β/β Cro/Bxo 0020/0010 05/02 -
09799 S24W11
(166",-493") 		β/β Dao/Cko 0100/0150 07/09 -
09800 N07E21
(-340",3") 		β/β Eai/Dsi 0330/0230 35/27 -
09801 S03E36
(-561",-147") 		β/β Dao/Cao 0110/0100 03/02 -
09802 S15E46
(-663",-326") 		β/β Dso/Dao 0230/0140 10/05 -
09803 S24W61
(762",-438") 		β/β Cso/Cso 0030/0030 04/04 -
09804 S19E13
(-203",-419") 		αγ/- Axx/--- 0020/---- 01/-- -
09805 N14E50
(-710",154") 		αγ/- Hrx/--- 0010/---- 01/-- -
09806 N11E56
(-777",114") 		αγ/- Hsx/--- 0040/---- 01/-- -

Class (HH:MM) -Today
Class (HH:MM) -Yesterday

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: None

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 28-Jan-2002 00:30 . The greyed out and light-blue entries are values from the previous day. Slashed cells indicate that the active region has no spots. The latest positions of the active regions are given in both heliographic and heliocentric co-ordinates. The region positions are valid on 28-Jan-2002 23:30 .