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 28 September 2001
⇐20010927 ⇐Week ⇐Rotation Today Rotation⇒ Week⇒ 20010929⇒

Welcome to the Flare Prediction System. This page lists the active regions present on the Sun today, together with their probability of producing C-, M-, or X-class events. Flare probabilities are calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data combined over 1969-1976 and 1988-1996 (details of which can be found in Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41, along with full forecast verification testing). The percentage probabilities are based on the number of flares produced by regions classified using the McIntosh classification scheme (McIntosh, P., 1990, Solar Physics, 125, 251) during cycles 21 and 22. For example, over both time periods there were 377 regions classified Eai. As this class produced 131 M-class events, the mean M-class flare rate is ~131/377 or ~0.347 flares per day. Assuming the number of flares per unit time is governed by Poisson statistics, we can estimate a flaring probability for the following 24-hours using P( one or more flares ) = 1 - exp( -mean ), i.e., P = 1 - exp( -0.347 ) ~ 0.29, or 29% for an Eai class region to produce one or more M-class flares in the next 24-hours.

See Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002),
Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87 and Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951 for further details.

Click here for a description of the various active region classifications from the Royal Observatory of Belgium.
Region Flare Probabilities (%)
Number McIntosh C-class M-class X-class
No Prediction Found

NOTE: Occurrence of '...' indicates that McIntosh class was not observed in the period over which the Poisson flare rate statistics were determined. Values in parantheses/brackets give the NOAA/SWPC forecast probabilities for the occurrence of one or more C-, M-, or X-class flares. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.

Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research.


Today's/Yesterday's NOAA Active Regions
NOAA Number
Latest
Position
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot Area
[millionths]
Number of Spots
Recent
Flares
09620 N12W91
(931",198") 		αγδ/αγδ Hsx/Hsx 0040/0070 01/01 -
09621 N14W86
(922",220") 		αγδ/αγδ Hax/Hax 0110/0140 01/02 -
09624 N03W81
(940",30") 		αγδ/αγδ Hsx/Hsx 0090/0090 01/01 -
09627 N00W63
(850",-54") 		αγδ/βγδ Axx/Dso 0000/0040 02/09 -
09628 S18W51
(705",-364") 		βγδ/βγδ Ekc/Fkc 0780/0730 37/49 -
09632 S19W35
(518",-401") 		βγδ/βγδ Dkc/Ekc 0710/0670 17/21 -
09633 N22W04
(61",243") 		αγδ/αγδ Hsx/Hsx 0070/0080 01/01 -
09634 N12W03
(48",79") 		βγδ/βγδ Dao/Dao 0110/0090 08/07 -
09635 N21W52
(702",270") 		βγδ/βγδ Dso/Dao 0060/0060 10/09 -
09636 N13E12
(-193",98") 		βγδ/βγδ Fai/Eai 0370/0400 28/24 -
09637 S14E18
(-286",-340") 		βγδ/βγδ Dao/Dso 0200/0210 10/07 -
09638 N03E21
(-342",-62") 		αγδ/αγδ Axx/Hsx 0000/0020 01/01 -
09639 N04E07
(-116",-53") 		βγδ/βγδ Dso/Dso 0030/0030 07/03 -
09640 N10E53
(-751",93") 		βγδ/βγδ Cso/Cso 0040/0040 04/04 -
09641 S14E63
(-824",-282") 		αγδ/αγδ Hsx/Hsx 0060/0060 01/01 -

Class (HH:MM) -Today
Class (HH:MM) -Yesterday

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: None

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 28-Sep-2001 00:30 . The greyed out and light-blue entries are values from the previous day. Slashed cells indicate that the active region has no spots. The latest positions of the active regions are given in both heliographic and heliocentric co-ordinates. The region positions are valid on 28-Sep-2001 23:30 .