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 27 September 2001
⇐20010926 ⇐Week ⇐Rotation Today Rotation⇒ Week⇒ 20010928⇒

Welcome to the Flare Prediction System. This page lists the active regions present on the Sun today, together with their probability of producing C-, M-, or X-class events. Flare probabilities are calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data combined over 1969-1976 and 1988-1996 (details of which can be found in Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41, along with full forecast verification testing). The percentage probabilities are based on the number of flares produced by regions classified using the McIntosh classification scheme (McIntosh, P., 1990, Solar Physics, 125, 251) during cycles 21 and 22. For example, over both time periods there were 377 regions classified Eai. As this class produced 131 M-class events, the mean M-class flare rate is ~131/377 or ~0.347 flares per day. Assuming the number of flares per unit time is governed by Poisson statistics, we can estimate a flaring probability for the following 24-hours using P( one or more flares ) = 1 - exp( -mean ), i.e., P = 1 - exp( -0.347 ) ~ 0.29, or 29% for an Eai class region to produce one or more M-class flares in the next 24-hours.

See Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002),
Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87 and Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951 for further details.

Click here for a description of the various active region classifications from the Royal Observatory of Belgium.
Region Flare Probabilities (%)
Number McIntosh C-class M-class X-class
No Prediction Found

NOTE: Occurrence of '...' indicates that McIntosh class was not observed in the period over which the Poisson flare rate statistics were determined. Values in parantheses/brackets give the NOAA/SWPC forecast probabilities for the occurrence of one or more C-, M-, or X-class flares. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.

Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research.


Today's/Yesterday's NOAA Active Regions
NOAA Number
Latest
Position
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot Area
[millionths]
Number of Spots
Recent
Flares
09620 N12W78
(912",172") 		αγδ/αγδ Hsx/Hsx 0070/0070 01/02 -
09621 N14W73
(884",194") 		αγδ/βγδ Hax/Cao 0140/0150 02/04 -
09622 N13W91
(927",214") 		βγδ/βγδ Dso/Dao 0180/0200 03/06 -
09624 N02W68
(884",-12") 		αγδ/αγδ Hsx/Hsx 0090/0090 01/01 -
09627 N01W51
(742",-59") 		βγδ/βγδ Dso/Dao 0040/0060 09/16 -
09628 S18W39
(571",-381") 		βγδ/βγδ Fkc/Fkc 0730/0880 49/66 -
09632 S19W22
(338",-414") 		βγδ/βγδ Ekc/Dki 0670/0700 21/23 -
09633 N22E10
(-154",245") 		αγδ/αγδ Hsx/Hsx 0080/0070 01/01 -
09634 N12E10
(-162",81") 		βγδ/βγδ Dao/Dao 0090/0080 07/11 -
09635 N21W39
(561",252") 		βγδ/βγδ Dao/Dso 0060/0050 09/13 -
09636 N14E27
(-421",125") 		βγδ/βγδ Eai/Eao 0400/0300 24/17 -
09637 S15E32
(-489",-344") 		βγδ/βγδ Dso/Dao 0210/0180 07/05 -
09638 N03E34
(-533",-50") 		αγδ/αγδ Hsx/Hsx 0020/0030 01/02 -
09639 N04E22
(-357",-45") 		βγδ/βγδ Dso/Dso 0030/0030 03/03 -
09640 N10E53
(-751",93") 		βγδ/- Cso/--- 0040/---- 04/-- -
09641 S14E63
(-824",-282") 		αγδ/- Hsx/--- 0060/---- 01/-- -

Class (HH:MM) -Today
Class (HH:MM) -Yesterday

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: None

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 27-Sep-2001 00:30 . The greyed out and light-blue entries are values from the previous day. Slashed cells indicate that the active region has no spots. The latest positions of the active regions are given in both heliographic and heliocentric co-ordinates. The region positions are valid on 27-Sep-2001 23:30 .