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 8 September 2001
⇐20010907 ⇐Week ⇐Rotation Today Rotation⇒ Week⇒ 20010909⇒

Welcome to the Flare Prediction System. This page lists the active regions present on the Sun today, together with their probability of producing C-, M-, or X-class events. Flare probabilities are calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data combined over 1969-1976 and 1988-1996 (details of which can be found in Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41, along with full forecast verification testing). The percentage probabilities are based on the number of flares produced by regions classified using the McIntosh classification scheme (McIntosh, P., 1990, Solar Physics, 125, 251) during cycles 21 and 22. For example, over both time periods there were 377 regions classified Eai. As this class produced 131 M-class events, the mean M-class flare rate is ~131/377 or ~0.347 flares per day. Assuming the number of flares per unit time is governed by Poisson statistics, we can estimate a flaring probability for the following 24-hours using P( one or more flares ) = 1 - exp( -mean ), i.e., P = 1 - exp( -0.347 ) ~ 0.29, or 29% for an Eai class region to produce one or more M-class flares in the next 24-hours.

See Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002),
Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87 and Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951 for further details.

Click here for a description of the various active region classifications from the Royal Observatory of Belgium.
Region Flare Probabilities (%)
Number McIntosh C-class M-class X-class
No Prediction Found

NOTE: Occurrence of '...' indicates that McIntosh class was not observed in the period over which the Poisson flare rate statistics were determined. Values in parantheses/brackets give the NOAA/SWPC forecast probabilities for the occurrence of one or more C-, M-, or X-class flares. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.

Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research.


Today's/Yesterday's NOAA Active Regions
NOAA Number
Latest
Position
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot Area
[millionths]
Number of Spots
Recent
Flares
09596 N22W91
(883",355") 		αγδ/αγδ Hax/Hax 0090/0150 01/01 -
09601 N13W78
(908",188") 		βγδ/βγδ Eki/Fkc 0730/0780 24/30 -
09603 S08W17
(276",-246") 		αγδ/αγδ Hrx/Hrx 0010/0010 01/01 -
09605 S19W16
(249",-418") 		βγδ/βγδ Dao/Dao 0120/0120 16/09 -
09606 S18W09
(142",-406") 		βγδ/βγδ Eki/Eki 0270/0360 33/25 -
09607 S16E15
(-237",-373") 		βγδ/βγδ Fao/Eai 0180/0220 31/13 -
09608 S26E31
(-442",-508") 		βγδ/βγδ Fki/Fki 0850/0720 35/18 -
09609 S06W81
(936",-117") 		βγδ/βγδ Cso/Dso 0030/0040 03/05 -
09610 S13E46
(-669",-294") 		βγδ/αγδ Eko/Hax 0280/0070 11/01 -
09611 N10W37
(566",69") 		βγδ/βγδ Cao/Cao 0030/0030 07/07 -
09612 N22E26
(-388",254") 		βγδ/βγδ Dao/Dao 0050/0050 03/03 -
09613 S17W66
(833",-323") 		βγδ/βγδ Cao/Cao 0020/0020 03/03 -
09614 N13W33
(507",114") 		αγ/- Hrx/--- 0000/---- 01/-- -
09615 N12E50
(-715",121") 		αγ/- Axx/--- 0000/---- 01/-- -

Class (HH:MM) -Today
Class (HH:MM) -Yesterday

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: None

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 08-Sep-2001 00:30 . The greyed out and light-blue entries are values from the previous day. Slashed cells indicate that the active region has no spots. The latest positions of the active regions are given in both heliographic and heliocentric co-ordinates. The region positions are valid on 08-Sep-2001 23:30 .