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 18 June 2001
⇐20010617 ⇐Week ⇐Rotation Today Rotation⇒ Week⇒ 20010619⇒

Welcome to the Flare Prediction System. This page lists the active regions present on the Sun today, together with their probability of producing C-, M-, or X-class events. Flare probabilities are calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data combined over 1969-1976 and 1988-1996 (details of which can be found in Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41, along with full forecast verification testing). The percentage probabilities are based on the number of flares produced by regions classified using the McIntosh classification scheme (McIntosh, P., 1990, Solar Physics, 125, 251) during cycles 21 and 22. For example, over both time periods there were 377 regions classified Eai. As this class produced 131 M-class events, the mean M-class flare rate is ~131/377 or ~0.347 flares per day. Assuming the number of flares per unit time is governed by Poisson statistics, we can estimate a flaring probability for the following 24-hours using P( one or more flares ) = 1 - exp( -mean ), i.e., P = 1 - exp( -0.347 ) ~ 0.29, or 29% for an Eai class region to produce one or more M-class flares in the next 24-hours.

See Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002),
Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87 and Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951 for further details.

Click here for a description of the various active region classifications from the Royal Observatory of Belgium.
Region Flare Probabilities (%)
Number McIntosh C-class M-class X-class
No Prediction Found

NOTE: Occurrence of '...' indicates that McIntosh class was not observed in the period over which the Poisson flare rate statistics were determined. Values in parantheses/brackets give the NOAA/SWPC forecast probabilities for the occurrence of one or more C-, M-, or X-class flares. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.

Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research.


Today's/Yesterday's NOAA Active Regions
NOAA Number
Latest
Position
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot Area
[millionths]
Number of Spots
Recent
Flares
09491 N27W91
(848",430") 		αγ/α Hax/Hsx 0100/0110 02/01 -
09492 N23W91
(876",371") 		αγ/α Hsx/Axx 0020/0020 01/01 -
09493 N07W91
(945",117") 		αγ/α Hsx/Hsx 0080/0080 01/01 -
09495 N05W91
(948",84") 		βγ/β Dao/Dao 0190/0290 06/09 -
09497 S09W81
(929",-166") 		αγ/β Axx/Bxo 0000/0020 01/02 -
09498 N23W51
(683",300") 		αγ/β Hsx/Cso 0030/0040 02/04 -
09499 N20W85
(892",313") 		αγ/α Hax/Hsx 0030/0060 01/01 -
09500 N10W23
(368",55") 		βγ/β Dso/Cao 0050/0040 09/07 -
09501 S13W25
(393",-319") 		βγ/β Dao/Cao 0090/0090 16/07 -
09502 S25W09
(135",-508") 		βγ/β Dao/Dao 0090/0110 14/19 -
09503 N14E06
(-97",113") 		βγ/βγ Eki/Fkc 0520/0420 39/35 -
09504 N08E10
(-164",14") 		βγ/βγ Cko/Cko 0370/0410 05/07 -
09505 N21E18
(-275",232") 		βγ/βγ Dao/Dso 0050/0100 03/02 -
09506 N17E34
(-511",181") 		βγ/βγ Fki/Fki 0460/0720 24/17 -
09507 N12W15
(242",83") 		βγ/βγ Bxo/Cso 0020/0030 04/02 -
09508 S20W86
(892",-331") 		αγ/αγ Axx/Axx 0010/0010 01/01 -

Class (HH:MM) -Today
Class (HH:MM) -Yesterday

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: None

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 18-Jun-2001 00:30 . The greyed out and light-blue entries are values from the previous day. Slashed cells indicate that the active region has no spots. The latest positions of the active regions are given in both heliographic and heliocentric co-ordinates. The region positions are valid on 18-Jun-2001 23:30 .