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6 April 2001
20010405 Week Rotation Today Rotation Week 20010407

Welcome to the Flare Prediction System. This page lists the active regions present on the Sun today, together with their probability of producing C-, M-, or X-class events. Flare probabilities are calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data combined over 1969-1976 and 1988-1996 (details of which can be found in Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41, along with full forecast verification testing). The percentage probabilities are based on the number of flares produced by regions classified using the McIntosh classification scheme (McIntosh, P., 1990, Solar Physics, 125, 251) during cycles 21 and 22. For example, over both time periods there were 377 regions classified Eai. As this class produced 131 M-class events, the mean M-class flare rate is ~131/377 or ~0.347 flares per day. Assuming the number of flares per unit time is governed by Poisson statistics, we can estimate a flaring probability for the following 24-hours using P( one or more flares ) = 1 - exp( -mean ), i.e., P = 1 - exp( -0.347 ) ~ 0.29, or 29% for an Eai class region to produce one or more M-class flares in the next 24-hours.

See Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002),
Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87 and Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951 for further details.

Click here for a description of the various active region classifications from the Royal Observatory of Belgium.

Region Flare Probabilities (%)
Number McIntosh C-class M-class X-class
No Prediction Found

NOTE: Occurrence of '...' indicates that McIntosh class was not observed in the period over which the Poisson flare rate statistics were determined. Values in parantheses/brackets give the NOAA/SWPC forecast probabilities for the occurrence of one or more C-, M-, or X-class flares. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.

Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research.

Today's/Yesterday's NOAA Active Regions
NOAA Number
McIntosh Class
Sunspot Area
Number of Spots
09397 S09W91
αγδ/αγδ Hsx/Hsx 0030/0030 01/01 -
09401 N24W91
βγδ/βγδ Dao/Dao 0100/0100 04/03 -
09406 N29W49
βγδ/αγδ Cao/Hax 0140/0190 03/02 -
09407 N11W55
βγδ/αγδ Cso/Hsx 0090/0060 02/01 -
09408 S09W88
βγδ/βγδ Eao/Eao 0260/0300 10/13 -
09412 S14W15
αγδ/αγδ Axx/Axx 0000/0010 01/01 -
09413 N10W85
βγδ/βγδ Dao/Cao 0130/0110 06/07 -
09414 S23E06
αγδ/αγδ Axx/Axx 0000/0010 01/01 -
09415 S21E33
βγδ/βγδ Dki/Dko 0710/0680 19/09 -
09416 N17W60
βγδ/βγδ Cro/Dso 0030/0040 04/06 -
09417 S08E13
βγδ/αγδ Dso/Axx 0050/0000 13/01 -
09418 N27E44
βγδ/αγδ Eao/Hsx 0230/0130 08/01 -
09419 N10W47
αγδ/βγδ Axx/Cso 0000/0010 01/05 -
09420 S08E62
αγδ/αγδ Hsx/Hsx 0040/0040 01/01 -

Class (HH:MM) -Today
Class (HH:MM) -Yesterday

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: None

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 06-Apr-2001 00:30 . The greyed out and light-blue entries are values from the previous day. Slashed cells indicate that the active region has no spots. The latest positions of the active regions are given in both heliographic and heliocentric co-ordinates. The region positions are valid on 06-Apr-2001 23:30 .