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 30 March 2001
⇐20010329 ⇐Week ⇐Rotation Today Rotation⇒ Week⇒ 20010331⇒

Welcome to the Flare Prediction System. This page lists the active regions present on the Sun today, together with their probability of producing C-, M-, or X-class events. Flare probabilities are calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data combined over 1969-1976 and 1988-1996 (details of which can be found in Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41, along with full forecast verification testing). The percentage probabilities are based on the number of flares produced by regions classified using the McIntosh classification scheme (McIntosh, P., 1990, Solar Physics, 125, 251) during cycles 21 and 22. For example, over both time periods there were 377 regions classified Eai. As this class produced 131 M-class events, the mean M-class flare rate is ~131/377 or ~0.347 flares per day. Assuming the number of flares per unit time is governed by Poisson statistics, we can estimate a flaring probability for the following 24-hours using P( one or more flares ) = 1 - exp( -mean ), i.e., P = 1 - exp( -0.347 ) ~ 0.29, or 29% for an Eai class region to produce one or more M-class flares in the next 24-hours.

See Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002),
Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87 and Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951 for further details.

Click here for a description of the various active region classifications from the Royal Observatory of Belgium.
Region Flare Probabilities (%)
Number McIntosh C-class M-class X-class
No Prediction Found

NOTE: Occurrence of '...' indicates that McIntosh class was not observed in the period over which the Poisson flare rate statistics were determined. Values in parantheses/brackets give the NOAA/SWPC forecast probabilities for the occurrence of one or more C-, M-, or X-class flares. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.

Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research.


Today's/Yesterday's NOAA Active Regions
NOAA Number
Latest
Position
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot Area
[millionths]
Number of Spots
Recent
Flares
09387 N08W91
(942",133") 		αγδ/βγδ Hsx/Cso 0110/0150 01/04 -
09389 S12W64
(838",-248") 		βγδ/βγδ Dso/Cro 0050/0050 12/13 -
09390 N14W64
(832",177") 		βγδ/βγδ Cso/Cso 0050/0080 03/08 -
09393 N17W32
(484",179") 		βγδ/βγδ Fki/Fkc 2440/2240 51/51 -
09394 N08W34
(529",32") 		αγδ/αγδ Hrx/Axx 0000/0010 01/01 -
09395 S13W20
(318",-323") 		αγδ/βγδ Hax/Cso 0050/0060 01/04 -
09396 S06W86
(945",-107") 		βγδ/βγδ Dao/Dso 0240/0330 07/12 -
09397 S09W08
(131",-266") 		βγδ/βγδ Eao/Eai 0220/0260 13/17 -
09399 S31W74
(785",-515") 		αγδ/βγδ Axx/Cro 0000/0030 01/03 -
09400 N10W58
(797",101") 		αγδ/αγδ Axx/Axx 0000/0000 01/01 -
09401 N21W11
(170",229") 		βγδ/βγδ Dai/Cao 0210/0160 18/20 -
09402 N18W61
(794",237") 		αγδ/αγδ Hrx/Axx 0010/0010 01/03 -
09403 S13E06
(-97",-330") 		βγδ/βγδ Bxo/Bxo 0010/0020 03/05 -
09404 S05E22
(-356",-194") 		αγδ/αγδ Hax/Hax 0070/0070 01/01 -
09405 S13W48
(691",-291") 		αγδ/βγδ Axx/Bxo 0010/0040 03/14 -
09406 N26E38
(-528",330") 		αγδ/αγδ Hsx/Hax 0160/0150 01/01 -
09407 N13E40
(-598",123") 		βγδ/αγδ Cso/Hsx 0110/0080 02/01 -
09408 S10E10
(-163",-281") 		βγδ/βγδ Eai/Cao 0200/0090 15/13 -
09410 S36E25
(-326",-645") 		αγδ/- Axx/--- 0010/---- 02/-- -
09411 N07E35
(-544",17") 		αγδ/- Axx/--- 0020/---- 02/-- -
09412 S14E65
(-838",-278") 		βγδ/- Bxo/--- 0030/---- 02/-- -

Class (HH:MM) -Today
Class (HH:MM) -Yesterday

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: None

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 30-Mar-2001 00:30 . The greyed out and light-blue entries are values from the previous day. Slashed cells indicate that the active region has no spots. The latest positions of the active regions are given in both heliographic and heliocentric co-ordinates. The region positions are valid on 30-Mar-2001 23:30 .