show styles

9 August 2000
20000808 Week Rotation Today Rotation Week 20000810

Welcome to the Flare Prediction System. This page lists the active regions present on the Sun today, together with their probability of producing C-, M-, or X-class events. Flare probabilities are calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data combined over 1969-1976 and 1988-1996 (details of which can be found in Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41, along with full forecast verification testing). The percentage probabilities are based on the number of flares produced by regions classified using the McIntosh classification scheme (McIntosh, P., 1990, Solar Physics, 125, 251) during cycles 21 and 22. For example, over both time periods there were 377 regions classified Eai. As this class produced 131 M-class events, the mean M-class flare rate is ~131/377 or ~0.347 flares per day. Assuming the number of flares per unit time is governed by Poisson statistics, we can estimate a flaring probability for the following 24-hours using P( one or more flares ) = 1 - exp( -mean ), i.e., P = 1 - exp( -0.347 ) ~ 0.29, or 29% for an Eai class region to produce one or more M-class flares in the next 24-hours.

See Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002),
Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87 and Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951 for further details.

Click here for a description of the various active region classifications from the Royal Observatory of Belgium.

Region Flare Probabilities (%)
Number McIntosh C-class M-class X-class
No Prediction Found

NOTE: Occurrence of '...' indicates that McIntosh class was not observed in the period over which the Poisson flare rate statistics were determined. Values in parantheses/brackets give the NOAA/SWPC forecast probabilities for the occurrence of one or more C-, M-, or X-class flares. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.

Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research.



Today's/Yesterday's NOAA Active Regions
NOAA Number
Latest
Position
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot Area
[millionths]
Number of Spots
Recent
Flares
09105 N17W91
(903",276")
α/α Hsx/Hsx 0060/0060 01/01 -
09107 S13W89
(920",-212")
β/α Cro/Hrx 0030/0020 03/02 -
09110 S18W61
(787",-339")
β/β Dso/Dso 0040/0060 05/07 -
09114 N11W15
(241",79")
βγ/βγ Eki/Eai 0290/0160 21/22 C2.3(15:19) / -
09115 N18W00
(0",190")
β/β Cao/Cao 0170/0120 05/05 -
09116 S12W00
(0",-299")
α/α Axx/Hrx 0010/0010 03/03 -
09117 S10W65
(844",-207")
α/α Axx/Hsx 0000/0010 01/01 -
09119 S13W48
(685",-280")
β/β Cao/Dao 0050/0050 07/10 -
09120 S21W17
(258",-431")
β/β Bxo/Cso 0010/0020 03/05 -
09121 S34W12
(163",-612")
β/β Dao/Dao 0100/0070 03/04 -
09122 N22E22
(-329",262")
βγ/β Dai/Dso 0160/0080 15/08 C1.8(05:27) / -
09123 N18E58
(-763",237")
α/- Hsx/- 0080/- 01/- -

Class (HH:MM) -Today
Class (HH:MM) -Yesterday

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: C1.1(04:25) C1.5(22:05) C1.4(02:10) C1.5(07:35) M1.9(11:05) C1.4(15:38)

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 09-Aug-2000 00:30 . The greyed out and light-blue entries are values from the previous day. Slashed cells indicate that the active region has no spots. The latest positions of the active regions are given in both heliographic and heliocentric co-ordinates. The region positions are valid on 09-Aug-2000 23:30 .