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 21 July 2000
⇐20000720 ⇐Week ⇐Rotation Today Rotation⇒ Week⇒ 20000722⇒

Welcome to the Flare Prediction System. This page lists the active regions present on the Sun today, together with their probability of producing C-, M-, or X-class events. Flare probabilities are calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data combined over 1969-1976 and 1988-1996 (details of which can be found in Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41, along with full forecast verification testing). The percentage probabilities are based on the number of flares produced by regions classified using the McIntosh classification scheme (McIntosh, P., 1990, Solar Physics, 125, 251) during cycles 21 and 22. For example, over both time periods there were 377 regions classified Eai. As this class produced 131 M-class events, the mean M-class flare rate is ~131/377 or ~0.347 flares per day. Assuming the number of flares per unit time is governed by Poisson statistics, we can estimate a flaring probability for the following 24-hours using P( one or more flares ) = 1 - exp( -mean ), i.e., P = 1 - exp( -0.347 ) ~ 0.29, or 29% for an Eai class region to produce one or more M-class flares in the next 24-hours.

See Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002),
Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87 and Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951 for further details.

Click here for a description of the various active region classifications from the Royal Observatory of Belgium.
Region Flare Probabilities (%)
Number McIntosh C-class M-class X-class
No Prediction Found

NOTE: Occurrence of '...' indicates that McIntosh class was not observed in the period over which the Poisson flare rate statistics were determined. Values in parantheses/brackets give the NOAA/SWPC forecast probabilities for the occurrence of one or more C-, M-, or X-class flares. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.

Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research.


Today's/Yesterday's NOAA Active Regions
NOAA Number
Latest
Position
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot Area
[millionths]
Number of Spots
Recent
Flares
09077 N19W91
(893",307") 		β/β Bxo/Fao 0040/0080 05/11 -
09079 S26W88
(848",-415") 		α/α Hsx/Hax 0050/0060 01/01 -
09080 N24W81
(853",371") 		β/β Cso/Dao 0090/0120 06/12 -
09081 N04W63
(841",28") 		α/α Hsx/Hsx 0070/0070 01/01 -
09084 N20W79
(872",307") 		β/β Cso/Dao 0180/0280 06/07 -
09085 N15W48
(680",190") 		β/β Eao/Eao 0300/0260 27/21 C8.5(22:40) / -
09087 S12W27
(421",-268") 		γδ/βγδ Fkc/Fac 0780/0510 88/51 C9.5(14:03)
M1.9(10:33)
C6.3(08:39)
C6.0(04:37)
C4.0(03:07)
/ C3.5(22:10)
M5.0(20:22)
C7.0(15:43)
C7.0(13:16)
M3.6(09:21)
09088 N22W62
(774",317") 		β/β Dao/Dao 0180/0170 14/12 M3.3(23:31) / -
09090 N12E04
(-64",115") 		β/β Fso/Fao 0190/0190 42/28 C9.0(20:38)
C4.3(20:17)
M5.5(14:30)
M1.9(10:05)
M1.7(05:17)
/ C6.1(20:09)
C5.7(18:43)
C5.7(16:36)
C5.1(14:54)
09091 S06E01
(-16",-181") 		β/β Cso/Cao 0060/0040 05/03 -
09092 S25W62
(757",-433") 		α/β Axx/Cro 0000/0030 01/03 -
09094 S24E11
(-165",-458") 		α/α Hsx/Hax 0050/0050 01/01 -
09095 N23W40
(560",310") 		β/β Dso/Cro 0060/0030 14/10 -
09096 S14E33
(-500",-295") 		β/β Cso/Dao 0070/0070 03/02 -
09097 N05E39
(-594",18") 		βδ/β Ekc/Dao 0650/0370 12/04 C6.9(18:28)
/ C6.5(03:46)
C5.5(03:13)
09098 S02W49
(714",-87") 		β/β Bxo/Bxo 0010/0010 04/04 -
09099 N12E49
(-699",143") 		α/α Hsx/Hsx 0070/0050 01/01 -

Class (HH:MM) -Today
Class (HH:MM) -Yesterday

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: C9.7(03:54) C5.7(17:44) C4.5(19:30) C4.9(23:07)

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 21-Jul-2000 00:30 . The greyed out and light-blue entries are values from the previous day. Slashed cells indicate that the active region has no spots. The latest positions of the active regions are given in both heliographic and heliocentric co-ordinates. The region positions are valid on 21-Jul-2000 23:30 .