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 26 March 2000
⇐20000325 ⇐Week ⇐Rotation Today Rotation⇒ Week⇒ 20000327⇒

Welcome to the Flare Prediction System. This page lists the active regions present on the Sun today, together with their probability of producing C-, M-, or X-class events. Flare probabilities are calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data combined over 1969-1976 and 1988-1996 (details of which can be found in Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41, along with full forecast verification testing). The percentage probabilities are based on the number of flares produced by regions classified using the McIntosh classification scheme (McIntosh, P., 1990, Solar Physics, 125, 251) during cycles 21 and 22. For example, over both time periods there were 377 regions classified Eai. As this class produced 131 M-class events, the mean M-class flare rate is ~131/377 or ~0.347 flares per day. Assuming the number of flares per unit time is governed by Poisson statistics, we can estimate a flaring probability for the following 24-hours using P( one or more flares ) = 1 - exp( -mean ), i.e., P = 1 - exp( -0.347 ) ~ 0.29, or 29% for an Eai class region to produce one or more M-class flares in the next 24-hours.

See Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002),
Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87 and Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951 for further details.

Click here for a description of the various active region classifications from the Royal Observatory of Belgium.
Region Flare Probabilities (%)
Number McIntosh C-class M-class X-class
No Prediction Found

NOTE: Occurrence of '...' indicates that McIntosh class was not observed in the period over which the Poisson flare rate statistics were determined. Values in parantheses/brackets give the NOAA/SWPC forecast probabilities for the occurrence of one or more C-, M-, or X-class flares. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.

Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research.


Today's/Yesterday's NOAA Active Regions
NOAA Number
Latest
Position
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot Area
[millionths]
Number of Spots
Recent
Flares
08913 S16W91
(907",-260") 		β/β Eao/Eao 0070/0100 06/08 -
08915 N23W54
(705",427") 		α/α Hsx/Hsx 0130/0170 02/01 -
08916 N12W41
(608",278") 		β/β Dso/Dao 0110/0140 09/10 C2.8(14:46) / -
08917 N19W87
(891",310") 		β/β Dso/Dao 0060/0160 04/10 -
08921 S18W05
(78",-185") 		β/β Dai/Ekc 0240/0420 27/26 - / C7.4(22:31)
08923 S27W08
(117",-328") 		β/β Cao/Cao 0010/0020 02/02 -
08924 N10E27
(-423",261") 		β/β Dao/Cso 0120/0140 12/04 -
08925 S18E36
(-529",-204") 		β/β Cso/Cao 0080/0090 08/02 -
08926 S10W59
(799",-106") 		βγδ/β Dso/Dai 0080/0090 19/11 C4.1(22:05)
M2.3(17:27)
/ C2.9(21:56)
C2.7(13:17)
C5.0(12:20)
C8.0(09:36)
08927 N16W42
(609",339") 		β/β Cao/Dso 0040/0060 14/09 -
08928 N19E32
(-474",396") 		β/β Dao/Cso 0050/0060 07/02 - / C3.5(19:15)
08929 S25E40
(-552",-320") 		α/- Axx/- 0000/- 01/- -
08930 S36E41
(-502",-484") 		β/- Bxo/- 0000/- 02/- -

Class (HH:MM) -Today
Class (HH:MM) -Yesterday

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: C4.5(11:38) C2.9(13:29) C4.6(02:19) C7.4(05:33) C2.8(15:30)

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 26-Mar-2000 00:30 . The greyed out and light-blue entries are values from the previous day. Slashed cells indicate that the active region has no spots. The latest positions of the active regions are given in both heliographic and heliocentric co-ordinates. The region positions are valid on 26-Mar-2000 23:30 .