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10 May 1999
19990509 Week Rotation Today Rotation Week 19990511

Welcome to the Flare Prediction System. This page lists the active regions present on the Sun today, together with their probability of producing C-, M-, or X-class events. Flare probabilities are calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data combined over 1969-1976 and 1988-1996 (details of which can be found in Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41, along with full forecast verification testing). The percentage probabilities are based on the number of flares produced by regions classified using the McIntosh classification scheme (McIntosh, P., 1990, Solar Physics, 125, 251) during cycles 21 and 22. For example, over both time periods there were 377 regions classified Eai. As this class produced 131 M-class events, the mean M-class flare rate is ~131/377 or ~0.347 flares per day. Assuming the number of flares per unit time is governed by Poisson statistics, we can estimate a flaring probability for the following 24-hours using P( one or more flares ) = 1 - exp( -mean ), i.e., P = 1 - exp( -0.347 ) ~ 0.29, or 29% for an Eai class region to produce one or more M-class flares in the next 24-hours.

See Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002),
Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87 and Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951 for further details.

Click here for a description of the various active region classifications from the Royal Observatory of Belgium.

Region Flare Probabilities (%)
Number McIntosh C-class M-class X-class
No Prediction Found

NOTE: Occurrence of '...' indicates that McIntosh class was not observed in the period over which the Poisson flare rate statistics were determined. Values in parantheses/brackets give the NOAA/SWPC forecast probabilities for the occurrence of one or more C-, M-, or X-class flares. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.

Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research.



Today's/Yesterday's NOAA Active Regions
NOAA Number
Latest
Position
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot Area
[millionths]
Number of Spots
Recent
Flares
08525 N17W74
(869",289")
α/α Hsx/Hsx 0140/0150 01/01 -
08531 N20W18
(275",370")
β/β Bxo/Cro 0010/0020 03/04 -
08533 N04E06
(-98",117")
β/β Bxo/Cso 0010/0040 04/05 -
08534 S18E07
(-109",-243")
β/β Cso/Cso 0040/0060 04/04 -
08535 N21E17
(-258",386")
β/β Dko/Dho 0330/0300 07/04 -
08536 S24W01
(15",-337")
β/β Dsi/Dso 0080/0070 19/15 -
08537 N20W91
(887",321")
β/β Dao/Eao 0170/0230 04/07 - / M7.6(17:53)
C5.1(16:06)
08538 N11W76
(900",192")
β/β Bxo/Cro 0020/0050 07/07 -
08539 N14E02
(-32",279")
β/β Bxo/Dso 0020/0050 04/06 M2.5(05:22) / -
08540 S28E33
(-455",-405")
β/β Dso/Eao 0080/0140 09/05 C1.3(20:19) / -
08541 N22E40
(-564",391")
β/β Eai/Eso 0190/0130 20/09 C1.4(23:01)
C1.7(15:44)
C1.1(14:06)
C1.9(12:50)
/ C2.8(02:51)
M1.1(00:36)

Class (HH:MM) -Today
Class (HH:MM) -Yesterday

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: C3.3(02:48) C3.2(03:02) C2.1(07:11) C5.3(09:16) C2.3(11:12) C1.6(17:28) C1.6(22:05) C2.5(04:32) C3.0(09:38) C3.2(10:37) M1.0(11:52) C3.7(14:05)

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 10-May-1999 00:30 . The greyed out and light-blue entries are values from the previous day. Slashed cells indicate that the active region has no spots. The latest positions of the active regions are given in both heliographic and heliocentric co-ordinates. The region positions are valid on 10-May-1999 23:30 .