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30 November 2024
20241129 Week Rotation Today Rotation Week 20241201

NOAA Number McIntosh Class C-class M-class X-class

13901
13902
13905
13906
13907
13908
13910
13911
13912

Hsx/Hsx
Hsx/Hsx
Eko/Eko
Eki/Eki
Bxo/Dao
Bxo/Bxo
Cko/Dko
Cso/Cso
Dso/Eso
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
3 5 5
3 5 10
72 61 55
75 81 70
8 6 10
8 6 10
32 35 35
14 17 15
20 30 20
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
0 3 1
0 3 1
11 21 20
23 42 25
1 1 1
1 1 1
0 12 10
1 3 1
0 7 5
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
0 0 1
0 0 1
4 2 5
3 7 5
0 0 1
0 0 1
0 1 1
0 0 1
0 1 1

Solar Monitor's flare prediction system's probabilities are calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data. There are two main methods, MCSTAT and MCEVOL, that use sunspot-group McIntosh classifications and Poisson statistics to calculate flaring probabilities valid for a 24-hr period*. The flaring probabilities are calculated using historical data from the periods 1969-1976 & 1988-1996 (MCSTAT) and 1988-2008 (MCEVOL).

MCSTAT – Uses point-in-time McIntosh classifications to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method [1] and forecast verification testing [2] can be found in the following papers:

[1] Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002)
[2] Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41

MCEVOL – Uses the evolution of McIntosh classifications over a 24-hr period to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method and flaring rate statistics can be found in the following:

[1] McCloskey, A.E., Gallagher, P.T. & Bloomfield, D.S., Solar Physics, 291, 1711, (2016)

Further Reading:
Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87
Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951


Notes:

'...' = McIntosh class or evolution was not observed in the period over which the Poisson flare rate statistics were determined.
* When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.


Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any queries regarding this research.



Today's/Yesterday's NOAA Active Regions
NOAA Number
Latest
Position
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot Area
[millionths]
Number of Spots
Recent
Flares
13901 S09W91
(960",-151")
α/α Hsx/Hsx 0060/0040 02/01 -
13902 S16W55
(767",-276")
α/α Hsx/Hsx 0040/0040 01/01 -
13905 S09W42
(644",-163")
βγ/βγ Eko/Eko 0400/0380 17/17 -
13906 S16W33
(511",-281")
βγ/βγδ Eki/Eki 0500/0420 36/22 -
13907 S21W75
(877",-352")
β/β Bxo/Dao 0010/0020 03/04 -
13908 N13W12
(197",205")
β/β Bxo/Bxo 0010/0010 03/03 - / C4.4(18:59)
13910 N16E16
(-258",255")
β/βγ Cko/Dko 0250/0250 06/06 -
13911 S16W86
(932",-269")
β/β Cso/Cso 0040/0030 02/03 -
13912 S04E38
(-599",-79")
β/β Dso/Eso 0120/0110 02/02 -
13909 N25W86
(879",410")
/ / / / -

Class (HH:MM) -Today
Class (HH:MM) -Yesterday

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: C3.5(01:19) C4.1(03:05) C5.6(05:56) C3.5(07:26) C2.6(07:53) C4.3(08:37) C9.4(08:59) C5.3(10:34) C2.1(14:44) C3.0(15:17) C3.2(16:09) C3.1(17:43) C2.7(18:01) C2.9(20:10) C5.5(20:23) C2.0(22:16) C2.8(22:32) C2.3(23:24) C3.2(23:52)

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 30-Nov-2024 00:30 UT . The greyed out and light-blue entries are values from the previous day. Slashed cells indicate that the active region has no spots. The latest positions of the active regions are given in both heliographic and heliocentric co-ordinates. The region positions are valid on 30-Nov-2024 20:30 UT .