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4 September 2024
20240903 Week Rotation Today Rotation Week 20240905

NOAA Number McIntosh Class C-class M-class X-class

13806
13807
13808
13811
13813

Axx/Axx
Eai/Ekc
Ekc/Eki
Cso/Cso
Axx/Bxo
Cao/Cso
Ekc/Dac
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
45 71 70
92 93 60
14 17 15
11 22 60
99 93 80
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
0 29 30
55 82 20
1 3 1
3 3 15
63 82 30
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
0 1 5
6 20 5
0 0 1
0 0 5
0 20 5

Solar Monitor's flare prediction system's probabilities are calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data. There are two main methods, MCSTAT and MCEVOL, that use sunspot-group McIntosh classifications and Poisson statistics to calculate flaring probabilities valid for a 24-hr period*. The flaring probabilities are calculated using historical data from the periods 1969-1976 & 1988-1996 (MCSTAT) and 1988-2008 (MCEVOL).

MCSTAT – Uses point-in-time McIntosh classifications to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method [1] and forecast verification testing [2] can be found in the following papers:

[1] Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002)
[2] Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41

MCEVOL – Uses the evolution of McIntosh classifications over a 24-hr period to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method and flaring rate statistics can be found in the following:

[1] McCloskey, A.E., Gallagher, P.T. & Bloomfield, D.S., Solar Physics, 291, 1711, (2016)

Further Reading:
Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87
Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951


Notes:

'...' = McIntosh class or evolution was not observed in the period over which the Poisson flare rate statistics were determined.
* When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.


Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any queries regarding this research.



Today's/Yesterday's NOAA Active Regions
NOAA Number
Latest
Position
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot Area
[millionths]
Number of Spots
Recent
Flares
13803 N16W51
(712",188")
α/α Axx/Axx 0010/0010 01/01 -
13806 S10W23
(367",-273")
βγ/βγ Eai/Ekc 0240/0330 24/48 -
13807 S15W71
(869",-282")
βγδ/βγ Ekc/Eki 0510/0580 14/26 -
13808 S08W12
(196",-248")
β/β Cso/Cso 0060/0080 04/04 M1.0(06:07)
M1.0(05:55)
C8.2(01:26)
C8.3(01:23) / -
13810 N16W18
(283",151")
α/β Axx/Bxo 0010/0010 01/03 -
13811 S10E14
(-227",-279")
β/β Cao/Cso 0220/0220 06/06 -
13813 S22E30
(-442",-451")
βγ/βγ Ekc/Dac 0270/0240 13/08 -
13804 S24W56
(721",-445")
/α /Axx /0010 /01 -
13805 N08W63
(840",77")
/ / / / -
13809 S21W16
(245",-447")
/ / / / -
13812 N14E04
(-64",112")
/β /Bxo /0010 /02 -

Class (HH:MM) -Today
Class (HH:MM) -Yesterday

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: C5.4(00:08) C5.5(00:33) C5.4(00:55) C5.0(09:34) C4.4(11:23) C8.8(12:15) C4.7(15:20) C7.0(18:52) C9.3(19:07) C5.9(22:54) M1.5(02:43) M1.3(04:41) M1.2(04:49) M1.0(13:08) M1.2(19:41) C6.4(23:55)

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 4-Sep-2024 00:30 UT . The greyed out and light-blue entries are values from the previous day. Slashed cells indicate that the active region has no spots. The latest positions of the active regions are given in both heliographic and heliocentric co-ordinates. The region positions are valid on 4-Sep-2024 23:30 UT .