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10 June 2024
20240609 Week Rotation Today Rotation Week 20240611

NOAA Number McIntosh Class C-class M-class X-class

13697
13701
13702
13703
13704
13707
13708
13709
13710
13711

Ekc/Ekc
Hsx/Cao
Cso/Cso
Dao/Dac
Axx/Axx
Cao/Dai
Cao/Cao
Cai/Cai
Cao/---
Dao/---
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
90 93 90
5 5 0
14 17 15
25 36 25
2 3 5
22 22 25
17 22 15
22 40 60
... 22 15
... 36 25
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
47 82 60
1 3 0
1 3 1
0 7 5
0 1 1
0 3 5
2 3 1
0 12 15
... 3 1
... 7 5
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
9 20 10
0 0 0
0 0 1
0 0 1
0 0 1
0 0 1
0 0 1
0 0 1
... 0 1
... 0 1

Solar Monitor's flare prediction system's probabilities are calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data. There are two main methods, MCSTAT and MCEVOL, that use sunspot-group McIntosh classifications and Poisson statistics to calculate flaring probabilities valid for a 24-hr period*. The flaring probabilities are calculated using historical data from the periods 1969-1976 & 1988-1996 (MCSTAT) and 1988-2008 (MCEVOL).

MCSTAT – Uses point-in-time McIntosh classifications to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method [1] and forecast verification testing [2] can be found in the following papers:

[1] Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002)
[2] Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41

MCEVOL – Uses the evolution of McIntosh classifications over a 24-hr period to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method and flaring rate statistics can be found in the following:

[1] McCloskey, A.E., Gallagher, P.T. & Bloomfield, D.S., Solar Physics, 291, 1711, (2016)

Further Reading:
Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87
Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951


Notes:

'...' = McIntosh class or evolution was not observed in the period over which the Poisson flare rate statistics were determined.
* When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.


Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any queries regarding this research.



Today's/Yesterday's NOAA Active Regions
NOAA Number
Latest
Position
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot Area
[millionths]
Number of Spots
Recent
Flares
13697 S19W91
(892",-307")
βγδ/βγδ Ekc/Ekc 0270/0360 13/19 -
13701 S06W91
(939",-98")
α/β Hsx/Cao 0010/0040 01/03 -
13702 N16W36
(535",254")
β/β Cso/Cso 0110/0100 02/04 -
13703 S08W80
(921",-133")
βγ/βγ Dao/Dac 0100/0160 05/07 -
13704 S18W34
(504",-300")
α/α Axx/Axx 0010/0010 01/01 -
13707 S15E04
(-63",-254")
β/β Cao/Dai 0080/0080 06/06 -
13708 S23E17
(-255",-378")
β/β Cao/Cao 0050/0050 02/03 -
13709 S10E32
(-494",-172")
β/β Cai/Cai 0140/0080 09/06 -
13710 S15W65
(828",-248")
β/- Cao/--- 0060/---- 06/-- -
13711 S09E38
(-576",-155")
β/- Dao/--- 0060/---- 03/-- -
13706 S12W55
(758",-202")
/ / / / -

Class (HH:MM) -Today
Class (HH:MM) -Yesterday

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: C2.7(02:26) C4.4(03:44) C5.9(04:10) C2.8(08:49) C7.4(14:12) C6.0(15:15) C4.9(16:10) C4.6(16:54) C5.7(17:27) M3.3(05:58) M2.3(09:38) M5.3(10:18) M1.3(13:20) M9.6(18:11) X1.6(11:03) C4.0(17:53) C3.9(19:04) C3.8(21:17) C3.6(23:59) M1.0(19:50)

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 10-Jun-2024 00:30 UT . The greyed out and light-blue entries are values from the previous day. Slashed cells indicate that the active region has no spots. The latest positions of the active regions are given in both heliographic and heliocentric co-ordinates. The region positions are valid on 10-Jun-2024 23:30 UT .