show styles

29 May 2024
20240528 Week Rotation Today Rotation Week 20240530

NOAA Number McIntosh Class C-class M-class X-class

13685
13686
13690
13691
13692
13693
13695
13696
13697

Dso/Dso
Cao/Cao
Hsx/Hsx
Ekc/Ekc
Cro/Cao
Dao/Dao
Cro/Cro
Hrx/Hrx
Eho/---
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
21 30 0
17 22 10
3 5 5
90 93 80
14 13 5
27 36 25
7 13 10
4 6 5
... 52 90
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
1 7 0
2 3 1
0 3 1
47 82 35
3 2 1
4 7 5
1 2 1
0 1 1
... 14 55
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
0 1 0
0 0 1
0 0 1
9 20 10
0 0 1
0 0 1
0 0 1
0 0 1
... 0 25

Solar Monitor's flare prediction system's probabilities are calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data. There are two main methods, MCSTAT and MCEVOL, that use sunspot-group McIntosh classifications and Poisson statistics to calculate flaring probabilities valid for a 24-hr period*. The flaring probabilities are calculated using historical data from the periods 1969-1976 & 1988-1996 (MCSTAT) and 1988-2008 (MCEVOL).

MCSTAT – Uses point-in-time McIntosh classifications to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method [1] and forecast verification testing [2] can be found in the following papers:

[1] Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002)
[2] Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41

MCEVOL – Uses the evolution of McIntosh classifications over a 24-hr period to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method and flaring rate statistics can be found in the following:

[1] McCloskey, A.E., Gallagher, P.T. & Bloomfield, D.S., Solar Physics, 291, 1711, (2016)

Further Reading:
Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87
Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951


Notes:

'...' = McIntosh class or evolution was not observed in the period over which the Poisson flare rate statistics were determined.
* When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.


Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any queries regarding this research.



Today's/Yesterday's NOAA Active Regions
NOAA Number
Latest
Position
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot Area
[millionths]
Number of Spots
Recent
Flares
13685 S13W91
(921",-213")
β/β Dso/Dso 0110/0150 03/03 -
13686 S09W91
(934",-148")
β/β Cao/Cao 0050/0060 03/02 -
13690 N17W08
(126",291")
α/α Hsx/Hsx 0030/0030 01/01 -
13691 N27E06
(-88",444")
βγδ/βγδ Ekc/Ekc 0400/0480 20/15 -
13692 S08W38
(578",-120")
β/β Cro/Cao 0030/0040 06/06 -
13693 N05W07
(115",97")
β/β Dao/Dao 0050/0040 08/04 C5.4(22:21)
M1.3(19:04)
M5.7(18:32)
M2.7(18:15)
M1.9(11:09) / -
13695 N28E20
(-286",457")
β/β Cro/Cro 0020/0020 04/04 -
13696 N09E24
(-381",161")
α/α Hrx/Hrx 0010/0010 01/01 -
13697 S18E55
(-738",-285")
βγ/- Eho/--- 0250/---- 05/-- -
13688 S12W85
(922",-195")
/ / / / -
13689 S07W53
(751",-106")
/ / / / -
13694 S12E02
(-32",-183")
/ / / / -

Class (HH:MM) -Today
Class (HH:MM) -Yesterday

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: C6.7(00:12) C6.5(00:25) C5.6(01:47) C7.4(03:20) C8.2(09:24) C7.3(20:00) C5.6(21:14) M1.3(00:57) M1.5(06:33) M2.5(12:45) X1.4(14:11) C3.7(21:21) C4.2(21:50) C4.0(22:19) C8.0(23:27)

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 29-May-2024 00:30 UT . The greyed out and light-blue entries are values from the previous day. Slashed cells indicate that the active region has no spots. The latest positions of the active regions are given in both heliographic and heliocentric co-ordinates. The region positions are valid on 29-May-2024 23:30 UT .