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22 May 2024
20240521 Week Rotation Today Rotation Week 20240523

NOAA Number McIntosh Class C-class M-class X-class

13674
13679
13683
13684
13685
13686
13689

Hsx/Cso
Eki/Esi
Axx/
Dso/Dai
Dao/Cao
Ehc/Ehc
Cao/Cao
Bxo/---
Cro/---
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
6 5 10
63 81 75
23 30 0
40 36 25
0 99 65
17 22 15
... 13 15
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
0 3 1
0 42 35
5 7 0
7 7 10
0 74 30
2 3 1
... 2 1
MCEVOL
MCSTAT
NOAA
0 0 1
0 7 10
0 1 0
0 0 1
0 0 5
0 0 1
... 0 1

Solar Monitor's flare prediction system's probabilities are calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data. There are two main methods, MCSTAT and MCEVOL, that use sunspot-group McIntosh classifications and Poisson statistics to calculate flaring probabilities valid for a 24-hr period*. The flaring probabilities are calculated using historical data from the periods 1969-1976 & 1988-1996 (MCSTAT) and 1988-2008 (MCEVOL).

MCSTAT – Uses point-in-time McIntosh classifications to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method [1] and forecast verification testing [2] can be found in the following papers:

[1] Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002)
[2] Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41

MCEVOL – Uses the evolution of McIntosh classifications over a 24-hr period to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method and flaring rate statistics can be found in the following:

[1] McCloskey, A.E., Gallagher, P.T. & Bloomfield, D.S., Solar Physics, 291, 1711, (2016)

Further Reading:
Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87
Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951


Notes:

'...' = McIntosh class or evolution was not observed in the period over which the Poisson flare rate statistics were determined.
* When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.


Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any queries regarding this research.



Today's/Yesterday's NOAA Active Regions
NOAA Number
Latest
Position
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot Area
[millionths]
Number of Spots
Recent
Flares
13674 S14W83
(912",-225")
α/β Hsx/Cso 0080/0100 01/05 - / C3.9(22:28)
13679 S09W60
(812",-134")
βγ/βγ Eki/Esi 0250/0150 13/11 -
13682 N13W50
(709",231")
α/ Axx/ 0000/ 02/ -
13683 S23W91
(871",-370")
β/β Dso/Dai 0070/0100 04/15 -
13684 S06W33
(515",-75")
β/β Dao/Cao 0080/0020 08/05 - / C1.8(08:57)
13685 S12W12
(193",-170")
βγ/βγ Ehc/Ehc 0380/0350 17/20 C3.6(18:37)
C3.9(17:07)
M1.2(13:51)
C3.6(06:52) / -
13686 S07W02
(32",-87")
β/β Cao/Cao 0120/0120 05/08 C8.5(20:46) / -
13688 S12E14
(-225",-170")
β/- Bxo/--- 0010/---- 03/-- -
13689 S08E41
(-617",-110")
β/- Cro/--- 0030/---- 03/-- -
13673 S08W91
(937",-132")
/ / / / -
13678 N09W76
(908",155")
/ / / / -
13680 N18W62
(796",305")
/ / / / -
13687 N15W40
(590",266")
/ / / / -

Class (HH:MM) -Today
Class (HH:MM) -Yesterday

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: C3.3(11:30) C3.6(11:40) C5.3(14:25) C3.1(16:06) C7.4(18:51) M1.5(03:02) M2.3(03:38) C2.4(10:11) C2.0(12:04) C7.0(13:29) C6.6(14:00) C6.9(15:53) M1.9(19:19)

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 22-May-2024 00:30 UT . The greyed out and light-blue entries are values from the previous day. Slashed cells indicate that the active region has no spots. The latest positions of the active regions are given in both heliographic and heliocentric co-ordinates. The region positions are valid on 22-May-2024 23:30 UT .